SPC AC 140823
   
   DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0223 AM CST TUE FEB 14 2012
   
   VALID 161200Z - 171200Z
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   MODELS SUGGEST THAT A SIGNIFICANT SOUTHERN BRANCH IMPULSE MAY
   CONTINUE NORTHEAST OF THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY ON THURSDAY... GRADUALLY
   MERGING WITH...AND LIFTING INTO...BROADER SCALE TROUGHING DEVELOPING
   WITHIN THE NORTHERN STREAM...ACROSS THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
   INTO NEW ENGLAND.  AS THIS OCCURS...AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE CYCLONE
   PROBABLY WILL CONTINUE TO DEEPEN ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES INTO
   QUEBEC...WITH A TRAILING COLD FRONT ADVANCING INTO AND THROUGH THE
   SOUTHEAST STATES...AND SECONDARY SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS TAKING PLACE
   ACROSS THE SOUTHERN MID ATLANTIC COAST REGION.
   
   AT THE SAME TIME...RIDGING WITHIN THE SOUTHERN BRANCH APPEARS LIKELY
   TO BECOME SUPPRESSED...FROM NEAR A CONFLUENCE WITH THE NORTHERN
   STREAM ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS/LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY EASTWARD
   THROUGH THE SOUTH ATLANTIC COAST.  AS THIS OCCURS...GUIDANCE
   INDICATES THAT ANOTHER SOUTHWESTERN CLOSED LOW WILL CONTINUE DIGGING
   INTO NORTHWEST MEXICO...AS SHORT WAVE RIDGING BUILDS INTO THE
   PACIFIC NORTHWEST.
   
   IN RESPONSE TO THIS PATTERN EVOLUTION...IT APPEARS THAT RICHER GULF
   MOISTURE RETURN WILL BECOME CUT-OFF BEFORE REACHING THE EASTERN GULF
   AND SOUTH ATLANTIC COAST STATES.  BUT...FURTHER BOUNDARY LAYER
   MOISTENING IS PROBABLE OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO... SOME OF WHICH MAY
   BEGIN TO RETURN TOWARD A SLOW MOVING FRONTAL ZONE NEAR TEXAS COASTAL
   AREAS AND THE LOWER RIO GRANDE VALLEY.  HIGHEST THUNDERSTORM
   PROBABILITIES MAY BECOME FOCUSED ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHEAST MEXICO
   AND THE GULF OF MEXICO ON THURSDAY...BUT THE POTENTIAL FOR AT LEAST
   SOME VIGOROUS CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHEAST
   MAY NOT BE NEGLIGIBLE.
   
   ...EASTERN GULF/SOUTH ATLANTIC COAST STATES...
   THE LACK OF STRONGER MOISTENING IS EXPECTED TO BE A LIMITING FACTOR
   TO CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL THURSDAY.  AND MODEL VARIABILITY CONCERNING
   BOTH THE PRIMARY AND SECONDARY SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS ACROSS THE EAST
   CONTINUES TO CONTRIBUTE TO UNCERTAINTY.  HOWEVER...GIVEN AT LEAST
   POTENTIAL FOR WEAK DESTABILIZATION IN THE PRESENCE OF WEAK TO
   MODERATE LARGE SCALE ASCENT...AND A STRONGLY SHEARED FLOW REGIME
   OVERSPREADING THE REGION...LOW PROBABILITIES APPEAR TO EXIST FOR
   STRONG/SEVERE STORM DEVELOPMENT.
   
   ..KERR.. 02/14/2012
   
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   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0830Z