Categorical Graphic
Probabilistic Graphic
Probability of severe weather within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of significant severe within 25 miles of a point.

   SPC AC 110729
   
   DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0129 AM CST SUN MAR 11 2012
   
   VALID 131200Z - 141200Z
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   
   BROAD SWLY FLOW WILL DEVELOP OVER MUCH OF THE CONUS FROM THE MS
   VALLEY WWD BY DAY3.  ASIDE FROM THE PACIFIC NW INTO THE NRN HIGH
   PLAINS...MID-HIGH LEVEL FLOW IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN RELATIVELY
   WEAK-MODEST WITH NONDESCRIPT EMBEDDED DISTURBANCES EXPECTED TO
   TRANSLATE ACROSS NRN MEXICO INTO THE MIDDLE OF THE COUNTRY.  THIS
   FLOW REGIME WILL UNDOUBTEDLY RESULT IN A GRADUAL WARMING/MOISTENING
   BOUNDARY LAYER FROM TX...NEWD INTO THE MID MS VALLEY REGION. 
   ADDITIONALLY...LEE TROUGHING WILL ENSURE A MODULATING LLJ ANCHORED
   ACROSS THE PLAINS.  GIVEN THE EXPECTED WEAK FORCING IT/S NOT
   ENTIRELY CLEAR IF/WHEN THUNDERSTORMS WILL INITIATE ACROSS THE SLOWLY
   DESTABILIZING WARM SECTOR.  FOR THIS REASON WILL NOT INTRODUCE
   SEVERE PROBS...HOWEVER IF THE MODELS UNDERESTIMATE ANY SHORT-WAVE
   TROUGHS THEN LOCALIZED STRONG/POSSIBLY SEVERE STORMS COULD DEVELOP
   WITHIN THE RECOVERY ZONE.
   
   ..DARROW.. 03/11/2012
   
   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0730Z