DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0421 AM CDT WED MAY 25 2005
   
   VALID 281200Z - 021200Z
   
   ...DISCUSSION...
   
   BOTH GFS AND THE ECMWF ARE BEGINNING TO SUGGEST A PATTERN TRANSITION
   WITH A GENERAL AGREEMENT THAT ERN U.S. UPPER LOW WILL DEAMPLIFY.
   MOISTURE MAY BEGIN RETURNING NWD THROUGH THE CNTRL HIGH PLAINS BY
   THE 29TH AS A LEE TROUGH DEVELOPS. THIS WOULD SUGGEST INCREASING
   SEVERE WEATHER CHANCES OVER PARTS OF THE CNTRL HIGH PLAINS FROM THE
   29TH-31TH...BUT THE MID LEVEL FLOW IS STILL NOT FORECAST TO BE
   PARTICULARLY STRONG. BOTH THE MRF AND ECMWF ALSO SUGGEST A SRN
   STREAM UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE EWD THROUGH TX DURING 05/29 - 05/30
   WHICH MIGHT INCREASE THE SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL IN THAT REGION.
   HOWEVER...MODELS STILL DIFFER ON DETAILS OF THE LARGE SCALE PATTERN
   EVOLUTION AND LARGE SPREADS STILL EXIST WITH THE MREF SPAGHETTI BY
   05/30. THE PREDICTABILITY OF THIS TRANSITIONAL PATTERN DOES NOT
   APPEAR SUFFICIENT TO INTRODUCE SEVERE THREAT AREAS AT THIS TIME.
   
   ..DIAL.. 05/25/2005