DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0238 AM CDT THU SEP 15 2005
   
   VALID 181200Z - 231200Z
   
   ...DISCUSSION...
   THERE IS A CHANCE FOR SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SEVERE STORMS ACROSS THE
   UPPER MS VALLEY INTO PARTS OF THE CNTRL PLAINS/MIDWEST FROM SUNDAY
   INTO MONDAY /SEP. 18-19/. HOWEVER...GFS RUN-TO-RUN CONSISTENCY WITH
   THE SHORT WAVE IMPULSE DRIVING A COLD FRONT ACROSS THESE AREAS IS
   LOW. FURTHERMORE...LATEST ENSEMBLE OUTPUT SUGGESTS A LARGE SPREAD IN
   MEMBERS WITH REGARD TO THE STRENGTH OF THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH
   FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THIS AREA. THEREFORE...LOW CONFIDENCE
   RESULTS IN NO OUTLOOK FOR A REGIONAL SEVERE WEATHER OUTBREAK THIS
   FORECAST.
   
   ..CARBIN.. 09/15/2005