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Note:
Comment Period: Oct 3, 2005 - July 28, 2006.
Please send your comments to spc.feedback@noaa.gov.
Product Definition Document (PDD) in HTML or MS-Word.
Experimental Day 4-8 Severe Thunderstorm Outlook Issued on Nov 9, 2005
Note:
Increased variability in model forecasts with time and the
inability of the medium range models to resolve mesoscale features
results in greater uncertainty forecasting severe storms in the
Day 4-8 period.
SPC forecasters examine various deterministic and ensemble model
looking for synoptic patterns that favor at least a 25% or higher
probability for severe thunderstorms, before a severe weather area
is depicted.
DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0307 AM CST WED NOV 09 2005
VALID 121200Z - 171200Z
...DISCUSSION...
MODELS HAVE TRENDED TOWARD A FASTER SOLUTION BRINGING THE CUTOFF LOW
NOW OFF THE SWRN U.S. COAST INTO THE SRN HIGH PLAINS FRIDAY AND THE
SRN PLAINS AND MS VALLEY SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. ATTENDANT LEE
CYCLOGENESIS AND LOW LEVEL JET SHOULD ACCELERATE THE RETURN OF GULF
MOISTURE NWD THROUGH THE SRN PLAINS AND LOWER MS VALLEY UNDERNEATH
STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES. AS THE ATMOSPHERE DESTABILIZES...STORMS
MAY INTENSIFY AND BECOME SEVERE ALONG EWD ADVANCING DRYLINE FROM
PARTS OF TX NWD THROUGH OK AND KS DURING THE DAY. ACTIVITY MAY
SPREAD EWD INTO THE MS VALLEY SATURDAY NIGHT.
..DIAL.. 11/09/2005
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