Experimental Day 4-8 Severe Thunderstorm Outlook Issued on May 23, 2006
Updated: Tue May 23 10:55:02 UTC 2006
Comment Period: Oct 3, 2005 - July 28, 2006.
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Increased variability in model forecasts with time and the
inability of the medium range models to resolve mesoscale features
results in greater uncertainty forecasting severe storms in the
Day 4-8 period.
SPC forecasters examine various deterministic and ensemble model
looking for synoptic patterns that favor at least a 25% or higher
probability for severe thunderstorms, before a severe weather area
DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK RESENT 1
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0553 AM CDT TUE MAY 23 2006
VALID 261200Z - 311200Z
MODELS CONTINUE TREND OF EVOLVING PATTERN TO AN UPPER RIDGE OVER THE
ERN U.S. AS AN UPPER LOW AMPLIFIES OVER THE WRN STATES THROUGH MUCH
OF THIS PERIOD. SOME DIFFERENCES DO EXIST BETWEEN THE ECMWF AND THE
MRF. THE MRF MAINTAINS A MORE OR LESS OPEN WAVE IN THE W COMPARED TO
THE ECMWF WHICH CLOSES OFF THE UPPER LOW.
MOISTURE WILL BEGIN RETURNING NWD INTO THE NRN PLAINS UNDERNEATH
BELT OF STRONGER FLOW ON MAY 26TH AS A LOW LEVEL JET INCREASES E OF
DEVELOPING LEE TROUGH. HOWEVER...MOST OF THE LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH
THIS WARM ADVECTION REGIME IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN N OF THE ND BORDER.
BEYOND THIS TIME...HEIGHTS RISE OVER THE NRN PLAINS AS THE UPPER
TROUGH AMPLIFIES OVER THE WRN STATES WHICH COULD SERVE TO LIMIT A
POTENTIAL ORGANIZED SEVERE WEATHER THREAT.