Experimental Day 4-8 Severe Thunderstorm Outlook Issued on Aug 19, 2006
Updated: Sat Aug 19 08:50:03 UTC 2006
Comment Period: Oct 3, 2005 - July 28, 2006.
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Increased variability in model forecasts with time and the
inability of the medium range models to resolve mesoscale features
results in greater uncertainty forecasting severe storms in the
Day 4-8 period.
SPC forecasters examine various deterministic and ensemble model
looking for synoptic patterns that favor at least a 25% or higher
probability for severe thunderstorms, before a severe weather area
DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0349 AM CDT SAT AUG 19 2006
VALID 221200Z - 271200Z
MODELS CONTINUE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH AMPLIFICATION OF MID-HIGH
LEVEL FLOW ALONG THE U.S./CANADIAN BORDER NEXT WEEK. SEVERAL
SIGNIFICANT SHORTWAVE TROUGHS WILL MOVE THROUGH THIS FLOW INDUCING
SFC CYCLOGENESIS ACROSS THE NRN HIGH PLAINS BEFORE EJECTING NEWD
INTO ONTARIO. AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS PATTERN EVOLUTION WILL
SUPPORT THE POTENTIAL FOR MULTIPLE CONVECTIVE EVENTS CAPABLE OF
GENERATING SEVERE FROM THE NRN/CNTRL PLAINS...EWD INTO THE GREAT