Experimental Day 4-8 Severe Thunderstorm Outlook Issued on Aug 21, 2006
Updated: Mon Aug 21 08:30:03 UTC 2006
Comment Period: Oct 3, 2005 - July 28, 2006.
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Increased variability in model forecasts with time and the
inability of the medium range models to resolve mesoscale features
results in greater uncertainty forecasting severe storms in the
Day 4-8 period.
SPC forecasters examine various deterministic and ensemble model
looking for synoptic patterns that favor at least a 25% or higher
probability for severe thunderstorms, before a severe weather area
DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0325 AM CDT MON AUG 21 2006
VALID 241200Z - 291200Z
LATE EVENING MODEL GUIDANCE ARE IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT WITH UPPER
TROUGH MOVEMENT FROM THE NRN ROCKIES INTO THE MID MS VALLEY/UPPER
GREAT LAKES BY THE 26TH. BEYOND THIS PERIOD MODELS DIVERGE
SIGNIFICANTLY AND PREDICTABILITY DECREASES. LATEST TRENDS CONTINUE
TO SUGGEST ORGANIZED CONVECTION IS POSSIBLE AHEAD OF THIS TROUGH
THURSDAY INTO SATURDAY...SOME OF WHICH SHOULD BE SEVERE.