Experimental Day 4-8 Severe Thunderstorm Outlook Issued on Nov 7, 2006
Updated: Tue Nov 7 09:10:02 UTC 2006
Comment Period: Oct 3, 2005 - July 28, 2006.
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Product Definition Document (PDD) in HTML or MS-Word.
Increased variability in model forecasts with time and the
inability of the medium range models to resolve mesoscale features
results in greater uncertainty forecasting severe storms in the
Day 4-8 period.
SPC forecasters examine various deterministic and ensemble model
looking for synoptic patterns that favor at least a 25% or higher
probability for severe thunderstorms, before a severe weather area
DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0308 AM CST TUE NOV 07 2006
VALID 101200Z - 151200Z
THE GFS...MRF ENSEMBLE MEMBERS...AND THE ECMWF SHOW REASONABLE
AGREEMENT AMPLIFYING A SHORTWAVE TROUGH SEWD INTO THE CNTRL AND SRN
PLAINS ON 11/10 THEN EJECTING IT INTO THE MS...OH AND TN VALLEYS ON
11/11. THIS FEATURE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY A COLD FRONT. SUFFICIENT
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE MAY RETURN THROUGH PRE-FRONTAL WARM SECTOR ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE SRN PLAINS INTO THE MS VALLEY FOR A THREAT OF SEVERE
WEATHER AS THE FRONT SWEEPS EWD. SEVERE THREAT MAY SHIFT INTO PARTS
OF THE TN/OH VALLEY AND SERN U.S. ON 11/11...BUT THREAT SHOULD
BECOME MORE LIMITED WITH EWD EXTENT DUE TO EXPECTED WEAKER