Experimental Day 4-8 Severe Thunderstorm Outlook Issued on Feb 18, 2007
Updated: Sun Feb 18 09:10:06 UTC 2007
Comment Period: Oct 3, 2005 - July 28, 2006.
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Increased variability in model forecasts with time and the
inability of the medium range models to resolve mesoscale features
results in greater uncertainty forecasting severe storms in the
Day 4-8 period.
SPC forecasters examine various deterministic and ensemble model
looking for synoptic patterns that favor at least a 25% or higher
probability for severe thunderstorms, before a severe weather area
DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0305 AM CST SUN FEB 18 2007
VALID 211200Z - 261200Z
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT DURING THE LATER HALF
OF THE UPCOMING WEEK. THE MODELS DEVELOP A VIGOROUS UPPER-LEVEL
TROUGH OVER THE WRN U.S. MOVING THE TROUGH ACROSS THE ROCKIES ON
FRIDAY AND INTO THE PLAINS SATURDAY. AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING
SYSTEM...A STRONG LOW-LEVEL JET WILL TRANSPORT MOISTURE NWD INTO THE
PLAINS AND MS VALLEY. ALTHOUGH THE TIMING OF THE APPROACHING SYSTEM
REMAINS QUESTIONABLE...DAY 6 AND DAY 7 LOOK TO HAVE THE MOST
POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER. IF SUBSTANTIAL INSTABILITY DEVELOPS AS
FORECAST FRIDAY...A SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER EVENT COULD OCCUR IN
THE PLAINS AND OZARK REGION. THIS WOULD LIKELY CONTINUE INTO
SATURDAY AS THE TROUGH TRANSITIONS EWD ACROSS THE MS...TN AND OH