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Day 4-8 Convective Outlook Issued on May 24, 2007
Updated: Thu May 24 09:05:03 UTC 2007
Note:
A severe weather area depicted in the Day 4-8 period
indicates a 30% or higher probability for severe
thunderstorms within 25 miles of any point.
D4: Sun, May 27, 2007 - Mon, May 28, 2007 |
D7: Wed, May 30, 2007 - Thu, May 31, 2007 |
D5: Mon, May 28, 2007 - Tue, May 29, 2007 |
D8: Thu, May 31, 2007 - Fri, Jun 01, 2007 |
D6: Tue, May 29, 2007 - Wed, May 30, 2007 |
(All days are valid from 12 UTC - 12 UTC) |
ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL
ACUS48 KWNS 240900
SPC AC 240900
DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0400 AM CDT THU MAY 24 2007
VALID 271200Z - 011200Z
...SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS PARTS OF THE OHIO VALLEY INTO
THE NORTHEAST ON SUNDAY...MAY 27TH...AND ACROSS PARTS OF THE NORTH
CENTRAL PLAINS/MISSOURI VALLEY NEXT MONDAY/TUESDAY...MAY 28/29TH...
DESTABILIZATION MAY BE RATHER MODEST...AT BEST...IN THE WARM SECTOR
OF SURFACE FRONTAL WAVE PROGGED TO SHIFT NORTHEAST OF THE GREAT
LAKES REGION THROUGH THE ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY SUNDAY. BUT...IT
SHOULD BECOME SUFFICIENT...GIVEN MODERATELY STRONG WIND FIELDS AND
MID-LEVEL FORCING FOR UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION SUGGESTED BY LATEST
MEDIUM RANGE FORECAST GUIDANCE...TO SUPPORT DAMAGING WIND/HAIL
POTENTIAL WITH PRE-FRONTAL SQUALL LINE OR CONVECTIVE CLUSTER ACROSS
PARTS OF THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY AND NORTHEAST.
THEREAFTER...THE PRIMARY FOCUS FOR VIGOROUS CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT
WILL SHIFT INTO THE NORTH CENTRAL STATES...AS FRONT BECOMES QUASI
STATIONARY FROM THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS INTO THE MID MISSOURI
VALLEY EARLY NEXT WEEK. MREF SUGGESTS THAT LOW-LEVEL MOISTENING AND
STEEPENING LAPSE RATES WILL CONTRIBUTE TO STRONG INSTABILITY ACROSS
THIS REGION...AS DEEP LAYER SHEAR INCREASES WITH THE APPROACH OF
NEXT SHORT WAVE IMPULSE. UNCERTAINTY EXISTS WITH REGARD TO THE
PROGRESSION OF UPPER FEATURE...BUT THE ENVIRONMENT IS EXPECTED TO
BECOME SUPPORTIVE OF SUPERCELLS AND UPSCALE GROWTH INTO ONE OR MORE
CONVECTIVE CLUSTERS NEXT MONDAY/TUESDAY.
..KERR.. 05/24/2007
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