ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL
   ACUS48 KWNS 160857
   SPC AC 160857
   
   DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0357 AM CDT THU AUG 16 2007
   
   VALID 191200Z - 241200Z
   
   THERE IS GENERAL CONSISTENCY IN THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS MOVING A
   LONGWAVE TROUGH FROM THE PACIFIC NW ON DAY 4/SUN EWD INTO THE NRN
   ROCKIES/PLAINS ON DAY 5/MON...THOUGH THE GFS IS A LITTLE WEAKER AND
   FASTER WITH SYSTEM. HOWEVER...ALL MODELS ARE REASONABLY CLOSE WITH
   THEIR FORECAST OF STRONG INSTABILITY/SURFACE FRONT LOCATION AND
   LARGE SCALE LIFT FOR A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM THREAT OVER PORTIONS OF
   THE DAKOTAS AND MN ON DAY 5.
   
   THEREAFTER...THE MODELS DIFFER ON THE EVOLUTION/STRENGTH OF THE
   UPPER TROUGH AND SEVERE POTENTIAL...THOUGH THE CONSENSUS MAINTAIN A 
   LONGWAVE TROUGH ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS...SUGGESTIVE OF A SEVERE
   POTENTIAL FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST SWWD INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS ON
   DAYS 6/TUE AND 7/WED. ALSO...A WARM FRONT IS EXPECTED TO ROUGHLY
   EXTEND FROM THE NRN/CENTRAL PLAINS EWD THROUGH THE OH VALLEY AND
   INTO THE MID ATLANTIC STATES. MODERATELY STRONG WLY FLOW ALOFT AND
   MOIST/UNSTABLE AIR MASS WOULD FAVOR SOME MCS ACTIVITY. HOWEVER... 
   UNCERTAINTY ON LOCATION OF FRONTAL BOUNDARY/UPPER LEVEL IMPULSES AND
   DEGREE OF INSTABILITY PRECLUDE SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK AREAS BEYOND
   DAY 5.
   
   ..IMY.. 08/16/2007