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Day 4-8 Convective Outlook Issued on Aug 17, 2007
Updated: Fri Aug 17 08:40:02 UTC 2007
Note:
A severe weather area depicted in the Day 4-8 period
indicates a 30% or higher probability for severe
thunderstorms within 25 miles of any point.
| D4: Mon, Aug 20, 2007 - Tue, Aug 21, 2007 |
D7: Thu, Aug 23, 2007 - Fri, Aug 24, 2007 |
| D5: Tue, Aug 21, 2007 - Wed, Aug 22, 2007 |
D8: Fri, Aug 24, 2007 - Sat, Aug 25, 2007 |
| D6: Wed, Aug 22, 2007 - Thu, Aug 23, 2007 |
(All days are valid from 12 UTC - 12 UTC) |
ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL
ACUS48 KWNS 170835
SPC AC 170835
DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0335 AM CDT FRI AUG 17 2007
VALID 201200Z - 251200Z
...DISCUSSION...
LATE EVENING MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH LARGE SCALE
PATTERN THROUGH MID WEEK...THOUGH ECMWF IS NOT AS AGGRESSIVE WITH
HEIGHT FALLS AT LOWER LATITUDES ACROSS THE PLAINS AS THE GFS. IT
APPEARS REASONABLE THAT NRN ROCKIES SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL SHIFT EAST
INTO THE NRN PLAINS/UPPER MS VALLEY FORCING A COLD FRONT TO A
POSITION OVER THE ERN DAKOTAS BY LATE IN THE DAY4 PERIOD. THIS
BOUNDARY SHOULD SERVE AS THE FOCUS FOR RENEWED THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT IN THE WAKE OF EARLY MORNING MCS ACTIVITY DURING THE
LATE DAY3/EARLY DAY4 TIME FRAME. BEYOND DAY4...MODELS HANDLE
INDIVIDUAL SHORTWAVES DIFFERENTLY AND COMBINED WITH CONVECTIVE
CONTAMINATION PREDICTABILITY WILL PROVE TOO DIFFICULT TO WARRANT AN
OUTLOOK.
..DARROW.. 08/17/2007
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