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Day 4-8 Convective Outlook Issued on Oct 18, 2007
Updated: Thu Oct 18 07:40:03 UTC 2007
Note:
A severe weather area depicted in the Day 4-8 period
indicates a 30% or higher probability for severe
thunderstorms within 25 miles of any point.
| D4: Sun, Oct 21, 2007 - Mon, Oct 22, 2007 |
D7: Wed, Oct 24, 2007 - Thu, Oct 25, 2007 |
| D5: Mon, Oct 22, 2007 - Tue, Oct 23, 2007 |
D8: Thu, Oct 25, 2007 - Fri, Oct 26, 2007 |
| D6: Tue, Oct 23, 2007 - Wed, Oct 24, 2007 |
(All days are valid from 12 UTC - 12 UTC) |
ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL
ACUS48 KWNS 180737
SPC AC 180737
DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0237 AM CDT THU OCT 18 2007
VALID 211200Z - 261200Z
...DISCUSSION...
MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW EXTREME VARIABILITY -- BOTH RUN-TO-RUN /GFS/
AND BETWEEN MODELS /GFS AND ECMWF/.
THE 00Z RUNS OF THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE FAIRLY SIMILAR THROUGH 84
HOURS WITH THEIR HANDLING OF THE TROUGH CROSSING THE ROCKIES.
BEYOND THIS TIME THOUGH...DRASTIC DIVERGENCE COMMENCES.
THIS RUN OF THE GFS /UNLIKE SOME PRIOR RUNS/ IS VERY PROGRESSIVE
WITH THIS TROUGH...MOVING IT ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND ERN CONUS AND
THEN OFF THE CENTRAL AND SRN ATLANTIC COAST BY THE END OF DAY 6 /12Z
WED. OCT 24/. MEANWHILE...THE ECMWF STALLS -- AND THEN CUTS OFF AND
RETROGRADES -- THIS FEATURE...WHICH IS CENTERED OVER THE DESERT SW
AT THIS TIME.
AS A RESULT OF THE OBVIOUS LACK OF PREDICTABILITY...WILL NOT ATTEMPT
TO HIGHLIGHT ANY SEVERE THREAT AREAS THIS FORECAST.
..GOSS.. 10/18/2007
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