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Day 4-8 Convective Outlook Issued on Oct 19, 2007
Updated: Fri Oct 19 08:20:03 UTC 2007
Note:
A severe weather area depicted in the Day 4-8 period
indicates a 30% or higher probability for severe
thunderstorms within 25 miles of any point.
| D4: Mon, Oct 22, 2007 - Tue, Oct 23, 2007 |
D7: Thu, Oct 25, 2007 - Fri, Oct 26, 2007 |
| D5: Tue, Oct 23, 2007 - Wed, Oct 24, 2007 |
D8: Fri, Oct 26, 2007 - Sat, Oct 27, 2007 |
| D6: Wed, Oct 24, 2007 - Thu, Oct 25, 2007 |
(All days are valid from 12 UTC - 12 UTC) |
ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL
ACUS48 KWNS 190819
SPC AC 190819
DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0319 AM CDT FRI OCT 19 2007
VALID 221200Z - 271200Z
...DISCUSSION...
WHILE THE 19/00Z GFS AND ECMWF WERE CONSISTENT IN MAINTAINING A DEEP
CLOSED LOW OVER THE SRN/CENTRAL PLAINS MOST OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD...BOTH 12Z RUNS WERE MORE PROGRESSIVE WITH A DEEP TROUGH
SHIFTING EWD INTO THE ERN PORTIONS OF THE COUNTRY BY MID WEEK.
LATEST MREF MORE CLOSELY RESEMBLES THE 18/12Z GFS/EURO WITH A DEEP
TROUGH MOVING EWD INTO THE ERN STATES WED/THU. ALTHOUGH THE CLOSED
LOW SOLUTION WOULD RESULT IN A BAROTROPIC SITUATION AND LOW THREAT
FOR SEVERE...THE DEEP PROGRESSIVE TROUGH SOLUTION WOULD FAVOR A
THREAT FOR SEVERE STORMS ALONG THE CENTRAL/ERN GULF COASTAL STATES
MON-WED. HOWEVER...THE EXTREME MODEL VARIABILITY FROM RUN TO RUN
PRECLUDES A SEVERE WEATHER THREAT AREA.
..IMY.. 10/19/2007
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