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Day 4-8 Convective Outlook Issued on Feb 22, 2008
Updated: Fri Feb 22 09:50:03 UTC 2008
Note:
A severe weather area depicted in the Day 4-8 period
indicates a 30% or higher probability for severe
thunderstorms within 25 miles of any point.
| D4: Mon, Feb 25, 2008 - Tue, Feb 26, 2008 |
D7: Thu, Feb 28, 2008 - Fri, Feb 29, 2008 |
| D5: Tue, Feb 26, 2008 - Wed, Feb 27, 2008 |
D8: Fri, Feb 29, 2008 - Sat, Mar 01, 2008 |
| D6: Wed, Feb 27, 2008 - Thu, Feb 28, 2008 |
(All days are valid from 12 UTC - 12 UTC) |
ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL
ACUS48 KWNS 220945
SPC AC 220945
DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0345 AM CST FRI FEB 22 2008
VALID 251200Z - 011200Z
...DISCUSSION...
SPEED MAX AND SHORTWAVE TROUGH -- NOW EVIDENT N OF HAWAII IN SRN
BRANCH OF WLYS ALOFT -- IS EXPECTED TO EVOLVE INTO SYNOPTIC SCALE
TROUGH INVOF W COAST DAY-3/24TH-25TH. PERTURBATION THEN SHOULD MOVE
THROUGH SPLIT FLOW REGIME AND PENETRATE WRN MEAN RIDGE...MOVING EWD
ACROSS CENTRAL/SRN PLAINS DAY-4/25TH-26TH...THEN ACROSS GREAT LAKES
AND LOWER MS VALLEY DURING FOLLOWING PERIOD. TIMING DIFFERENCES IN
MREF AND OPERATIONAL MODELS ARE RELATIVELY MINOR...THOUGH SOME
DISPARITY IS EVIDENT IN AMPLITUDE OF OVERALL TROUGH AND IN RELATIVE
STRENGTH OF SRN AND NRN STREAM SHORTWAVE CONTRIBUTIONS. CONSENSUS
PROG -- WHICH ECMWF MIMICS FAIRLY CLOSELY -- INDICATES POSITIVELY
TILTED TROUGH...WITH STRONGER SFC CYCLOGENESIS BEING WELL INLAND
INSTEAD OF NEAR GULF COAST. THIS INDICATES ENOUGH HORIZONTAL
DISPLACEMENT OF STRONGEST LOW LEVEL SHEAR AND GREATEST MOISTURE TO
CAST UNCERTAINTIES ON POTENTIAL FOR WELL ORGANIZED SVR EVENT.
..EDWARDS.. 02/22/2008
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