ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL
   ACUS48 KWNS 010951
   SPC AC 010951
   
   DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0351 AM CST SAT MAR 01 2008
   
   VALID 041200Z - 091200Z
   
   ...SVR WEATHER POSSIBLE ACROSS THE SERN STATES...NRN/CNTRL FL AND
   THE ERN CAROLINAS ON TUESDAY...
   
   ...DISCUSSION...
   UPR LOW EXPECTED TO BE OVER THE MID-SOUTH EARLY ON TUE WILL EJECT
   NEWD AND PHASE WITH THE POLAR BRANCH OVER THE LWR GRTLKS REGION BY
   WED.  ATTENDANT SFC LOW WILL SUBSEQUENTLY DEEPEN AS IT MOVES FROM
   MIDDLE TN EARLY TUE AND INTO NEW ENGLAND BY WED NIGHT.  A COLD FRONT
   WILL SWEEP SEWD TO THE S OF THE LOW...REACHING THE ERN SEABOARD AND
   CNTRL FL TUE NIGHT.
   
   A SQUALL LINE IS EXPECTED TO ONGOING ALONG/AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT
   ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE DEEP SOUTH EARLY ON TUESDAY.  STRONG SLY LLJ
   WILL CONTINUE TO TRANSLATE EWD INTO THE SERN STATES THROUGH THE
   DAY...BUT THEN BEGIN TO MIGRATE NWD UP THE ATLC SEABOARD BY EVENING
   AS THE PRIMARY CYCLONE EJECTS NEWD.  GULF AND ATLC MOISTURE SHOULD
   ADVECT INTO FL...MUCH OF GA AND THE ERN PARTS OF THE CAROLINAS...
   LIKELY MAINTAINING THE SQUALL LINE.  MAGNITUDE OF LOW/MID-LVL FLOW
   WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR BOWS AND SUPERCELL STRUCTURES...PARTICULARLY
   ACROSS EXTREME ERN AL INTO GA AND MUCH OF NRN FL THROUGH LATE AFTN. 
   THE SQUALL LINE WILL PROBABLY WEAKEN WITH NRN EXTENT DUE TO LESS
   INSTABILITY...AND WITH SRN EXTENT LATE IN THE AFTN AS OVERALL MASS
   CONVERGENCE/SHEAR DIMINISH.
   
   OTHERWISE...LATEST ECMWF/GFS ARE QUITE VARIED ON THE HANDLING OF THE
   NEXT TROUGH EXPECTED TO MOVE TOWARD THE PLAINS IN THE WED-FRI TIME
   FRAME.  AT LEAST HALF OF THE GEFS PERTURBATIONS SUPPORT THE ECMWF
   IDEA OF CLOSING OFF ANOTHER LOW AND DROPPING IT SWD INTO MEXICO. 
   THIS IS IN CONTRAST TO THE MORE PROGRESSIVE/STRONGER GFS.  AT THIS
   POINT IN TIME...GIVEN POOR MODEL PREDICTABILITY...THE REMAINDER OF
   THE EXTENDED PERIOD SVR RISKS ARE UNCERTAIN.
   
   ..RACY.. 03/01/2008