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Day 4-8 Convective Outlook Issued on Mar 29, 2008
Updated: Sat Mar 29 09:04:03 UTC 2008
Note:
A severe weather area depicted in the Day 4-8 period
indicates a 30% or higher probability for severe
thunderstorms within 25 miles of any point.
D4 | Tue, Apr 01, 2008 - Wed, Apr 02, 2008 |
D7 | Fri, Apr 04, 2008 - Sat, Apr 05, 2008 |
D5 | Wed, Apr 02, 2008 - Thu, Apr 03, 2008 |
D8 | Sat, Apr 05, 2008 - Sun, Apr 06, 2008 |
D6 | Thu, Apr 03, 2008 - Fri, Apr 04, 2008 |
(All days are valid from 12 UTC - 12 UTC) |
ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL
ACUS48 KWNS 290903
SPC AC 290903
DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0403 AM CDT SAT MAR 29 2008
VALID 011200Z - 061200Z
...PLAINS REGION AND MS VALLEY...
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT EARLY IN THE DAY 4
TO 8 PERIOD MOVING AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE MS VALLEY QUICKLY
ENEWD ACROSS THE NERN US TUESDAY NIGHT /DAY 4/. ANOTHER UPPER-LEVEL
TROUGH IS FORECAST BY THE ECMWF AND GFS TO DEVELOP IN THE WRN STATES
WEDNESDAY /DAY 5/ WITH A MID-LEVEL JET EJECTING EWD ACROSS THE SRN
PLAINS THURSDAY /DAY 6/. ALTHOUGH...THE MODELS ARE SLIGHTLY OUT OF
PHASE TIMING THE TROUGH INTO THE PLAINS...MOISTURE WILL HAVE AN
EXTENDED PERIOD TO RETURN AHEAD OF THE TROUGH SUGGESTING A LARGE
WARM SECTOR WILL BE IN PLACE BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON. IN
ADDITION...THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN FORECAST BY THE GFS/ECMWF SOLUTIONS
APPEARS FAVORABLE FOR A MORE WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER EVENT. AT
THIS POINT...ENOUGH CONFIDENCE EXISTS IN THE CURRENT ECMWF SOLUTION
FOR A SEVERE WEATHER THREAT AREA FROM THE SRN PLAINS EXTENDING NEWD
INTO THE MS VALLEY.
..BROYLES.. 03/29/2008
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
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