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Day 4-8 Convective Outlook Issued on Mar 29, 2008
Updated: Sat Mar 29 09:04:03 UTC 2008
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook Graphics Issued on Mar 29, 2008

Note: A severe weather area depicted in the Day 4-8 period indicates a 30% or higher probability for severe thunderstorms within 25 miles of any point.

D4Tue, Apr 01, 2008 - Wed, Apr 02, 2008 D7Fri, Apr 04, 2008 - Sat, Apr 05, 2008
D5Wed, Apr 02, 2008 - Thu, Apr 03, 2008 D8Sat, Apr 05, 2008 - Sun, Apr 06, 2008
D6Thu, Apr 03, 2008 - Fri, Apr 04, 2008 (All days are valid from 12 UTC - 12 UTC)

 Forecast Discussion

   ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL
   ACUS48 KWNS 290903
   SPC AC 290903
   
   DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0403 AM CDT SAT MAR 29 2008
   
   VALID 011200Z - 061200Z
   
   ...PLAINS REGION AND MS VALLEY...
   MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT EARLY IN THE DAY 4
   TO 8 PERIOD MOVING AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE MS VALLEY QUICKLY
   ENEWD ACROSS THE NERN US TUESDAY NIGHT /DAY 4/. ANOTHER UPPER-LEVEL
   TROUGH IS FORECAST BY THE ECMWF AND GFS TO DEVELOP IN THE WRN STATES
   WEDNESDAY /DAY 5/ WITH A MID-LEVEL JET EJECTING EWD ACROSS THE SRN
   PLAINS THURSDAY /DAY 6/. ALTHOUGH...THE MODELS ARE SLIGHTLY OUT OF
   PHASE TIMING THE TROUGH INTO THE PLAINS...MOISTURE WILL HAVE AN
   EXTENDED PERIOD TO RETURN AHEAD OF THE TROUGH SUGGESTING A LARGE
   WARM SECTOR WILL BE IN PLACE BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON. IN
   ADDITION...THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN FORECAST BY THE GFS/ECMWF SOLUTIONS
   APPEARS FAVORABLE FOR A MORE WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER EVENT. AT
   THIS POINT...ENOUGH CONFIDENCE EXISTS IN THE CURRENT ECMWF SOLUTION
   FOR A SEVERE WEATHER THREAT AREA FROM THE SRN PLAINS EXTENDING NEWD
   INTO THE MS VALLEY.
   
   ..BROYLES.. 03/29/2008

   CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

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