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Day 4-8 Convective Outlook Issued on Jun 1, 2008
Updated: Sun Jun 1 08:58:03 UTC 2008
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook Graphics Issued on Jun 1, 2008

Note: A severe weather area depicted in the Day 4-8 period indicates a 30% or higher probability for severe thunderstorms within 25 miles of any point.

D4Wed, Jun 04, 2008 - Thu, Jun 05, 2008 D7Sat, Jun 07, 2008 - Sun, Jun 08, 2008
D5Thu, Jun 05, 2008 - Fri, Jun 06, 2008 D8Sun, Jun 08, 2008 - Mon, Jun 09, 2008
D6Fri, Jun 06, 2008 - Sat, Jun 07, 2008 (All days are valid from 12 UTC - 12 UTC)

 Forecast Discussion

   ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL
   ACUS48 KWNS 010857
   SPC AC 010857
   
   DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0357 AM CDT SUN JUN 01 2008
   
   VALID 041200Z - 091200Z
   
   ...DISCUSSION...
   
   ...D4 /WED JUN 4TH/...
   
   LATEST MEDIUM-RANGE GUIDANCE IS CONSISTENT IN INDICATING THAT STRONG
   UPPER JET STREAK DIGGING SEWD FROM THE ERN PACIFIC INTO THE LOWER CO
   VALLEY WILL SUPPORT INTENSIFICATION TO LONG WAVE TROUGH OVER THE
   INTERMOUNTAIN WEST.  AS THIS OCCURS...CYCLOGENESIS WILL COMMENCE
   OVER THE SRN HIGH PLAINS WITH A SHARPENING DRYLINE EXTENDING SWD
   THROUGH WRN TX.  A STATIONARY OR WARM FRONT IS FORECAST TO EXTEND
   ENEWD FROM THIS DEEPENING LOW INTO THE MID OR LOWER MO VALLEY.
   
   WARM SECTOR AIR MASS OVER THE SRN AND CNTRL PLAINS IS EXPECTED TO
   BECOME MODERATE TO STRONGLY UNSTABLE /NAMELY ALONG WARM FRONT/. 
   HOWEVER...THE STRONG CAP MAY TEND TO LIMIT THE NUMBER OF STORMS THAT
   DEVELOP.  THE MOST LIKELY AREA FOR STORM INITIATION APPEARS TO BE
   FROM N/NW OF SURFACE LOW IN UPSLOPE FLOW REGIME...EWD ALONG
   WARM/STATIONARY FRONT AS THE LEADING EDGE OF STRONGER HEIGHT FALLS
   SPREAD E OF THE CNTRL ROCKIES.  SHOULD STORMS DEVELOP... ENVIRONMENT
   OVER THE CNTRL PLAINS WILL BE QUITE SUPPORTIVE OF SIGNIFICANT SEVERE
   WEATHER.
   
   ...D5 /THU JUN 5TH/...
   
   A SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER OUTBREAK IS EXPECTED FROM PORTIONS OF
   THE UPPER MIDWEST SWWD INTO THE SRN PLAINS.  A DYNAMIC UPPER TROUGH
   WILL DEVELOP EWD INTO THE CNTRL U.S. WITH AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW
   MOVING NEWD FROM THE CNTRL PLAINS INTO UPPER MS VALLEY.  RAPID AIR
   MASS DESTABILIZATION WILL OCCUR FROM ALONG SURFACE LOW AND WARM
   FRONT SWD AHEAD OF COLD FRONT AND DRYLINE.  THIS INSTABILITY
   COMBINED WITH STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR WILL SET THE STAGE FOR
   WIDESPREAD SEVERE STORM DEVELOPMENT.
   
   ...D6 /FRI JUN 6TH/...
   
   LARGE-SCALE SYSTEM WILL UNDERGO OCCLUSION AS NEGATIVELY-TILTED
   MIDLEVEL TROUGH LIFTS NEWD THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES.  A MOIST AND
   UNSTABLE AIR MASS WILL EXIST AHEAD OF SYSTEM COLD FRONT AND GIVEN
   THE STRENGTH OF THE WIND FIELDS AND DYNAMIC FORCING FOR ASCENT...THE
   THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER WILL CONTINUE EWD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
   INTO OH VALLEY.
   
   ...D7 /SAT JUN 7TH/ THROUGH D8 /SUN JUN 8TH/...
   
   DIFFERENCES IN DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE DATA SETS BEGIN TO
   INCREASE BY D7...NAMELY OVER THE WRN STATES WITH REGARD TO LONG WAVE
   EVOLUTION.  GIVEN THE INCREASING UNCERTAINTY...NO ADDITIONAL SEVERE
   WEATHER AREAS WILL BE DELINEATED.
   
   ..MEAD.. 06/01/2008

   CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

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