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Day 4-8 Convective Outlook Issued on Mar 27, 2009
Updated: Fri Mar 27 08:24:02 UTC 2009
Note:
A severe weather area depicted in the Day 4-8 period
indicates a 30% or higher probability for severe
thunderstorms within 25 miles of any point.
| D4 | Mon, Mar 30, 2009 - Tue, Mar 31, 2009 |
D7 | Thu, Apr 02, 2009 - Fri, Apr 03, 2009 |
| D5 | Tue, Mar 31, 2009 - Wed, Apr 01, 2009 |
D8 | Fri, Apr 03, 2009 - Sat, Apr 04, 2009 |
| D6 | Wed, Apr 01, 2009 - Thu, Apr 02, 2009 |
(All days are valid from 12 UTC - 12 UTC) |
ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL
ACUS48 KWNS 270823
SPC AC 270823
DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0323 AM CDT FRI MAR 27 2009
VALID 301200Z - 041200Z
...DISCUSSION...
MID-UPPER LEVEL CYCLONE IS FCST TO EJECT NEWD ACROSS PORTIONS ST
LAWRENCE VALLEY REGION THROUGH DAY-4/30TH-31ST. ALTHOUGH PROGS VARY
CONSIDERABLY ON TRACK/AMPLITUDE OF THIS SYSTEM BY THEN...ASSOCIATED
SFC COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP WELL OFFSHORE MOST OF ATLANTIC
COAST...WHILE SFC CYCLONE MOVES GENERALLY NEWD VICINITY MAINE COAST.
UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH -- NOW EVIDENT IN MOISTURE CHANNEL
IMAGERY S OF ALEUTIANS AND AK PENINSULA -- WILL DIG SEWD ACROSS
ROCKIES AND DEVELOP INTO CLOSED LOW...BEFORE MOVING EWD ACROSS
CENTRAL/NRN PLAINS DAY-4. STG LOW LEVEL CYCLOGENESIS AND PRECURSORY
WAA ARE EXPECTED AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM...HOWEVER LOW LEVEL RETURN
FLOW IN WAKE OF PRIOR FROPA SHOULD BE INSUFFICIENT FOR SIGNIFICANT
SVR EVENT WITH THIS WAVE. THIS SYSTEM -- IN TURN -- WILL PRODUCE
ANOTHER STRONG FROPA OVER WRN GULF COAST STATES. MORE SLY TRACK IS
EXPECTED WITH NEXT STG TROUGH IN MID-UPPER WAVE TRAIN...ACROSS SWRN
CONUS AND PORTIONS SRN PLAINS DURING DAYS 5-7/31ST-3RD TIME FRAME.
UNCERTAINTIES ON MOISTURE RETURN QUALITY BEHIND SECOND FROPA
PRECLUDE CATEGORICAL OUTLOOK ATTM.
..EDWARDS.. 03/27/2009
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
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