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Day 4-8 Convective Outlook Issued on May 18, 2009
Updated: Mon May 18 08:58:03 UTC 2009
Note:
A severe weather area depicted in the Day 4-8 period
indicates a 30% or higher probability for severe
thunderstorms within 25 miles of any point.
| D4 | Thu, May 21, 2009 - Fri, May 22, 2009 |
D7 | Sun, May 24, 2009 - Mon, May 25, 2009 |
| D5 | Fri, May 22, 2009 - Sat, May 23, 2009 |
D8 | Mon, May 25, 2009 - Tue, May 26, 2009 |
| D6 | Sat, May 23, 2009 - Sun, May 24, 2009 |
(All days are valid from 12 UTC - 12 UTC) |
ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL
ACUS48 KWNS 180857
SPC AC 180857
DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0357 AM CDT MON MAY 18 2009
VALID 211200Z - 261200Z
...DISCUSSION...
MEDIUM RANGE MODEL CONSENSUS SUGGESTS A RATHER AMPLIFIED/SUMMERTIME
LARGE SCALE PATTERN WILL LIKELY CONTINUE INTO THE LATTER PART OF THE
WEEK...WITH THE STRONGER WESTERLIES CONFINED TO THE NORTHERN TIER OF
THE LOWER 48. LIMITED MOISTURE RETURN AND/OR WEAK WESTERLIES WILL
LIKELY PRECLUDE ANY WIDESPREAD SEVERE EPISODES INTO THE
WEEKEND...AND NO 30% DAY-1 EQUIVALENT SEVERE PROBABILITIES ARE
WARRANTED AT THIS TIME.
MAIN PROSPECTS FOR ANY SEVERE TSTMS INTO THE WEEKEND WILL GENERALLY
BE CONFINED TO THE NORTH-CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS AND ADJACENT FRONT
RANGE WITHIN A LOW LEVEL UPSLOPE REGIME...ALTHOUGH WESTERLIES WILL
TEND TO REMAIN WEAK SOUTH OF MT. WHILE SPECIFIC PREDICTABILITY WITH
THE EVOLUTION OF THE STAGNANT UPPER LOW OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO IS
LIMITED...IT SEEMS PROBABLE THAT RICHER BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE WILL
FINALLY BEGIN TO RETURN NORTHWESTWARD INTO THE PLAINS AND MIDWEST
THIS WEEKEND. THIS COULD LEAD TO A BIT OF AN UPSWING IN TSTMS ACROSS
THE PLAINS/CENTRAL STATES...ALTHOUGH WEAK FORCING/WINDS ON THE LARGE
SCALE ARE SUGGESTIVE OF A LIMITED ORGANIZED SEVERE POTENTIAL AT THIS
JUNCTURE.
..GUYER.. 05/18/2009
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
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