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Day 4-8 Convective Outlook Issued on Jul 25, 2009
Updated: Sat Jul 25 08:58:03 UTC 2009
Note:
A severe weather area depicted in the Day 4-8 period
indicates a 30% or higher probability for severe
thunderstorms within 25 miles of any point.
| D4 | Tue, Jul 28, 2009 - Wed, Jul 29, 2009 |
D7 | Fri, Jul 31, 2009 - Sat, Aug 01, 2009 |
| D5 | Wed, Jul 29, 2009 - Thu, Jul 30, 2009 |
D8 | Sat, Aug 01, 2009 - Sun, Aug 02, 2009 |
| D6 | Thu, Jul 30, 2009 - Fri, Jul 31, 2009 |
(All days are valid from 12 UTC - 12 UTC) |
ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL
ACUS48 KWNS 250858
SPC AC 250858
DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0358 AM CDT SAT JUL 25 2009
VALID 281200Z - 021200Z
THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT EARLY IN THE DAY 4
TO 8 PERIOD QUICKLY DEEPENING A BROAD UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVER PLAINS
AND MS VALLEY TUESDAY/DAY 4. FROM HERE THE MODELS GRADUALLY
RETROGRADE AND DEAMPLIFY THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WWD INTO THE PLAINS
WEDNESDAY/DAY 5 INTO THURSDAY/DAY 6. THIS PATTERN WOULD LIKELY
RESULT IN A CHANCE FOR ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS EACH AFTERNOON
AND EVENING FROM THE TROUGH AXIS IN THE SRN PLAINS EWD INTO THE OH
AND TN VALLEYS. ALTHOUGH A CONCENTRATED AREA OF SEVERE WEATHER IS
POSSIBLE FROM WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY SOMEWHERE IN THE SCNTRL
STATES...DETAIL AND RELIABILITY IS NOT CONSIDERED GREAT ENOUGH TO
FORECAST A SEVERE THREAT AREA. IN THE LATER PART OF THE DAY 4-8
PERIOD...THE MODELS BRING A WELL-DEVELOPED SHORTWAVE TROUGH ACROSS
THE NRN PLAINS FRIDAY/DAY 7 AND INTO THE UPPER MS VALLEY ON
SATURDAY/DAY 8. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE AHEAD OF THIS
SYSTEM FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING. HOWEVER...MUCH
UNCERTAINTY EXISTS CONCERNING THE TIMING OF THE SYSTEM AND THE
AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY THAT WILL EXIST AHEAD OF THE UPPER-LEVEL
TROUGH.
..BROYLES.. 07/25/2009
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
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