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Day 4-8 Convective Outlook Issued on Sep 10, 2009
Updated: Thu Sep 10 08:37:04 UTC 2009
| D4 | Sun, Sep 13, 2009 - Mon, Sep 14, 2009 |
D7 | Wed, Sep 16, 2009 - Thu, Sep 17, 2009 |
| D5 | Mon, Sep 14, 2009 - Tue, Sep 15, 2009 |
D8 | Thu, Sep 17, 2009 - Fri, Sep 18, 2009 |
| D6 | Tue, Sep 15, 2009 - Wed, Sep 16, 2009 |
(All days are valid from 12 UTC - 12 UTC) |
Note: A severe weather
area depicted in the Day 4-8 period indicates a 30% or higher probability
for severe thunderstorms within 25 miles of any point.
PREDICTABILITY TOO LOW means severe storms are possible.
However, no severe weather areas are included as the severe threat is
less than 30% due to expected limited coverage or uncertainty on the
timing and location of such an event.
POTENTIAL TOO LOW is used when the threat for organized areas
of severe storms appears highly unlikely during the entire period.
ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL
ACUS48 KWNS 100837
SPC AC 100837
DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0337 AM CDT THU SEP 10 2009
VALID 131200Z - 181200Z
...DISCUSSION...
MODEL CONSENSUS IS THAT LARGE SCALE PATTERN WILL REMAIN DOMINATED BY
A HIGH LATITUDE OMEGA BLOCK WITH A MEAN RIDGE OVER CNTRL CANADA
FLANKED BY MEAN TROUGHS OVER THE ERN PACIFIC AND ERN CANADA. UPPER
LOW THAT WILL SETTLE INTO THE NRN HIGH PLAINS IS FORECAST TO EJECT
NEWD INTO S CNTRL CANADA BY DAY 5 IN RESPONSE TO AN UPSTREAM WAVE
MOVING ONTO THE CA COAST. THROUGH THE GROSS LARGE SCALE PATTERN IS
SIMILAR AMONG MODELS...DIFFERENCE IN DETAILS EXIST PARTICULARLY IN
HANDLING OF SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING INTO THE WRN U.S. AND THE NRN
PLAINS UPPER LOW BEYOND DAY 5. IN EITHER CASE...MOIST WARM SECTOR
WILL REMAIN WELL SOUTH OF THE BELT OF STRONGER WLYS...AND POTENTIAL
FOR ORGANIZED SEVERE EVENTS APPEARS LOW THROUGH MUCH IF NOT ALL OF
THE 4-8 PERIOD.
..DIAL.. 09/10/2009
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
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