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Day 4-8 Convective Outlook Issued on Jan 19, 2010
Updated: Tue Jan 19 08:55:07 UTC 2010
| D4 | Fri, Jan 22, 2010 - Sat, Jan 23, 2010 |
D7 | Mon, Jan 25, 2010 - Tue, Jan 26, 2010 |
| D5 | Sat, Jan 23, 2010 - Sun, Jan 24, 2010 |
D8 | Tue, Jan 26, 2010 - Wed, Jan 27, 2010 |
| D6 | Sun, Jan 24, 2010 - Mon, Jan 25, 2010 |
(All days are valid from 12 UTC - 12 UTC) |
Note: A severe weather
area depicted in the Day 4-8 period indicates a 30% or higher probability
for severe thunderstorms within 25 miles of any point.
PREDICTABILITY TOO LOW is used to indicate severe storms may be
possible based on some model scenarios.
However, the location or occurrence of severe storms are in doubt
due to: 1) large differences in the deterministic model solutions,
2) large spread in the ensemble guidance, and/or
3) minimal run-to-run continuity.
POTENTIAL TOO LOW means the threat for a regional area of
organized severe storms appears highly unlikely during the entire
period (e.g. less than a 30% probability for a regional severe
storm area across the CONUS through the entire Day 4-8 period).
ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL
ACUS48 KWNS 190854
SPC AC 190854
DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0254 AM CST TUE JAN 19 2010
VALID 221200Z - 271200Z
...DISCUSSION...
DAY 5 AND 6...MODELS REMAIN CONSISTENT IN ADVANCING LARGE UPPER
TROUGH INTO THE PLAINS BY SATURDAY WITH SEVERAL IMPULSES ROTATING
THROUGH THE UPPER LOW AS IT MOVES EAST. A LARGE CYCLONE WILL DEVELOP
OVER THE PLAINS IN ASSOCIATION WITH THIS FEATURE SATURDAY BEFORE
MOVING INTO THE MS VALLEY SATURDAY NIGHT OR SUNDAY. IT STILL APPEARS
THAT INTRUSION OF CP AIR IN WAKE OF EJECTING IMPULSE THURSDAY WILL
NOT EXTEND FAR INTO THE GULF. AS A RESULT PARTIALLY MODIFIED GULF
AIR WILL ADVECT NWD WITHIN ZONE OF STRONG BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW EAST
OF DEVELOPING CYCLONE AND CONTRIBUTE TO AT LEAST MARGINAL
INSTABILITY. FORCED BANDS OF STORMS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP OVER THE SRN
AND CNTRL PLAINS INTO THE LOWER-MID MS VALLEY DURING THE DAY. STORMS
WILL SUBSEQUENTLY SHIFT EWD THROUGH THE TN VALLEY AND SERN STATES
SUNDAY. AS IS TYPICAL IN HIGH SHEAR-LOW CAPE
ENVIRONMENTS...INSTABILITY REMAINS A POSSIBLE LIMITING FACTOR AND
PRIMARY UNCERTAINTY REGARDING EXTENT OF SEVERE THREAT.
..DIAL.. 01/19/2010
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
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