Day 4-8 Convective Outlook Issued on May 10, 2010
Updated: Mon May 10 08:33:03 UTC 2010
|D4||Thu, May 13, 2010 - Fri, May 14, 2010
||D7||Sun, May 16, 2010 - Mon, May 17, 2010
|D5||Fri, May 14, 2010 - Sat, May 15, 2010
||D8||Mon, May 17, 2010 - Tue, May 18, 2010
|D6||Sat, May 15, 2010 - Sun, May 16, 2010
||(All days are valid from 12 UTC - 12 UTC)
Note: A severe weather
area depicted in the Day 4-8 period indicates a 30% or higher probability
for severe thunderstorms within 25 miles of any point.
PREDICTABILITY TOO LOW is used to indicate severe storms may be
possible based on some model scenarios.
However, the location or occurrence of severe storms are in doubt
due to: 1) large differences in the deterministic model solutions,
2) large spread in the ensemble guidance, and/or
3) minimal run-to-run continuity.
POTENTIAL TOO LOW means the threat for a regional area of
organized severe storms appears highly unlikely during the entire
period (e.g. less than a 30% probability for a regional severe
storm area across the CONUS through the entire Day 4-8 period).
ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL
ACUS48 KWNS 100832
SPC AC 100832
DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0332 AM CDT MON MAY 10 2010
VALID 131200Z - 181200Z
MID-WEEK UPR LVL SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO TURN E AND
EFFECTIVELY FLATTEN THE SERN STATES UPR RIDGE THU/FRI. IN ITS
WAKE...FLOW REGIME WILL BECOME LARGELY ZONAL WITH POLAR JET
CONTINUING IN ITS UNUSUAL SRN RESIDENCY FOR MAY. BUILDING PRESSURES
OVER THE NRN TIER OF THE COUNTRY THROUGH LATE WEEK WILL RESULT IN A
SWD TRANSLATION OF A CP AIR MASS INTO TX AND DIXIE BY THE END OF
THERE WILL CONTINUE TO BE DAILY EPISODES OF TSTMS ALONG THE FRONT
WITH SPORADIC SVR STORMS POSSIBLE. THIS WILL PARTICULARLY BE THE
CASE ACROSS THE MIDWEST/UPR OH VLY ON THU /DAY 4/ AMIDST 50 KTS OF
WLY MID-LVL FLOW ALONG SRN FRINGE OF THE AFOREMENTIONED EJECTING
WAVE. ANOTHER ZONE OF DAILY SVR WEATHER CHANCES THROUGHOUT THE PD
WILL BE ACROSS PORTIONS OF SW TX/RIO GRANDE VLY WHERE MID-LVL LAPSE
RATES WILL BE STEEP ATOP RELATIVELY MOIST SELY BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW.
HOWEVER...A HIGHER-END REGIONAL SVR OUTBREAK DOES NOT APPEAR LIKELY.
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