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Day 4-8 Convective Outlook Issued on Nov 24, 2010
Updated: Wed Nov 24 08:25:03 UTC 2010
D4 | Sat, Nov 27, 2010 - Sun, Nov 28, 2010 |
D7 | Tue, Nov 30, 2010 - Wed, Dec 01, 2010 |
D5 | Sun, Nov 28, 2010 - Mon, Nov 29, 2010 |
D8 | Wed, Dec 01, 2010 - Thu, Dec 02, 2010 |
D6 | Mon, Nov 29, 2010 - Tue, Nov 30, 2010 |
(All days are valid from 12 UTC - 12 UTC) |
Note: A severe weather
area depicted in the Day 4-8 period indicates a 30% or higher probability
for severe thunderstorms within 25 miles of any point.
PREDICTABILITY TOO LOW is used to indicate severe storms may be
possible based on some model scenarios.
However, the location or occurrence of severe storms are in doubt
due to: 1) large differences in the deterministic model solutions,
2) large spread in the ensemble guidance, and/or
3) minimal run-to-run continuity.
POTENTIAL TOO LOW means the threat for a regional area of
organized severe storms appears highly unlikely during the entire
period (e.g. less than a 30% probability for a regional severe
storm area across the CONUS through the entire Day 4-8 period).
ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL
ACUS48 KWNS 240824
SPC AC 240824
DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0224 AM CST WED NOV 24 2010
VALID 271200Z - 021200Z
...DISCUSSION...
IN THE WAKE OF THE DAY 3 COLD FRONT EXITING THE ATLANTIC COAST...A
LOW TSTM/SEVERE POTENTIAL WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS HIGH
PRESSURE AND COOL/STABLE CONDITIONS PREVAIL EAST OF THE ROCKIES.
THEREAFTER...00Z GEFS/ECMWF GUIDANCE REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH
THE EXPECTED EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF AN UPPER TROUGH TOWARD THE
CENTRAL STATES BY DAY 7/MONDAY. ACCORDINGLY...EARLY INDICATIONS ARE
THAT AN ISOLATED SEVERE THREAT COULD DEVELOP ACROSS THE
ARKLATEX/LOWER MS VALLEY ON DAY 7/MONDAY.
..GUYER.. 11/24/2010
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
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