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Day 4-8 Convective Outlook Issued on Nov 24, 2010
Updated: Wed Nov 24 08:25:03 UTC 2010
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook Graphics Issued on Nov 24, 2010
D4Sat, Nov 27, 2010 - Sun, Nov 28, 2010 D7Tue, Nov 30, 2010 - Wed, Dec 01, 2010
D5Sun, Nov 28, 2010 - Mon, Nov 29, 2010 D8Wed, Dec 01, 2010 - Thu, Dec 02, 2010
D6Mon, Nov 29, 2010 - Tue, Nov 30, 2010 (All days are valid from 12 UTC - 12 UTC)

Note: A severe weather area depicted in the Day 4-8 period indicates a 30% or higher probability for severe thunderstorms within 25 miles of any point.

PREDICTABILITY TOO LOW is used to indicate severe storms may be possible based on some model scenarios. However, the location or occurrence of severe storms are in doubt due to: 1) large differences in the deterministic model solutions, 2) large spread in the ensemble guidance, and/or 3) minimal run-to-run continuity.
POTENTIAL TOO LOW means the threat for a regional area of organized severe storms appears highly unlikely during the entire period (e.g. less than a 30% probability for a regional severe storm area across the CONUS through the entire Day 4-8 period).


 Forecast Discussion

   ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL
   ACUS48 KWNS 240824
   SPC AC 240824
   
   DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0224 AM CST WED NOV 24 2010
   
   VALID 271200Z - 021200Z
   
   ...DISCUSSION...
   IN THE WAKE OF THE DAY 3 COLD FRONT EXITING THE ATLANTIC COAST...A
   LOW TSTM/SEVERE POTENTIAL WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS HIGH
   PRESSURE AND COOL/STABLE CONDITIONS PREVAIL EAST OF THE ROCKIES.
   THEREAFTER...00Z GEFS/ECMWF GUIDANCE REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH
   THE EXPECTED EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF AN UPPER TROUGH TOWARD THE
   CENTRAL STATES BY DAY 7/MONDAY. ACCORDINGLY...EARLY INDICATIONS ARE
   THAT AN ISOLATED SEVERE THREAT COULD DEVELOP ACROSS THE
   ARKLATEX/LOWER MS VALLEY ON DAY 7/MONDAY.
   
   ..GUYER.. 11/24/2010

   CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

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