|
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook Issued on Apr 10, 2011
Updated: Sun Apr 10 09:11:03 UTC 2011
| D4 | Wed, Apr 13, 2011 - Thu, Apr 14, 2011 |
D7 | Sat, Apr 16, 2011 - Sun, Apr 17, 2011 |
| D5 | Thu, Apr 14, 2011 - Fri, Apr 15, 2011 |
D8 | Sun, Apr 17, 2011 - Mon, Apr 18, 2011 |
| D6 | Fri, Apr 15, 2011 - Sat, Apr 16, 2011 |
(All days are valid from 12 UTC - 12 UTC) |
Note: A severe weather
area depicted in the Day 4-8 period indicates a 30% or higher probability
for severe thunderstorms within 25 miles of any point.
PREDICTABILITY TOO LOW is used to indicate severe storms may be
possible based on some model scenarios.
However, the location or occurrence of severe storms are in doubt
due to: 1) large differences in the deterministic model solutions,
2) large spread in the ensemble guidance, and/or
3) minimal run-to-run continuity.
POTENTIAL TOO LOW means the threat for a regional area of
organized severe storms appears highly unlikely during the entire
period (e.g. less than a 30% probability for a regional severe
storm area across the CONUS through the entire Day 4-8 period).
ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL
ACUS48 KWNS 100910
SPC AC 100910
DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK CORR 1
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0410 AM CDT SUN APR 10 2011
VALID 131200Z - 181200Z
CORRECTED OUTLOOK GRAPHIC...DAY 4 LABEL SHOULD BE DAY 5
THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS BEGIN THE DAY 4 TO 8 PERIOD WITH AN
UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE IN THE ERN STATES AND AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH IN THE
ROCKIES WEDNESDAY MORNING/DAY 4. THE MODELS MOVE THIS UPPER-LEVEL
TROUGH EWD INTO THE MS RIVER VALLEY WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH ANOTHER
TROUGH DEVELOPING FURTHER TO THE WEST IN THE ROCKIES. THE ECMWF AND
GFS ARE SIMILAR WITH THE SECOND UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH...MOVING THE
SYSTEM ACROSS THE GREAT PLAINS ON THURSDAY/DAY 5 BUT THE ECMWF IS
THE SLOWER SOLUTION. THIS WOULD SEEM THE MORE LIKELY SCENARIO WHICH
WOULD SUGGEST NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING THURSDAY EVENING
ALONG THE MOIST AXIS FROM ERN OK AND ERN KS EWD INTO MO AND AR. DUE
TO THE NEGATIVELY-TILT OF THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH AND STRONG
LOW-LEVEL JET RESPONSE FORECAST BY THE MODELS...WILL INTRODUCE A
SEVERE THREAT AREA FOR PARTS OF THE SRN AND CNTRL PLAINS EWD INTO
THE OZARKS. A WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER EVENT REMAINS POSSIBLE
ACROSS THIS AREA THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ON FRIDAY/DAY
6...THE MODELS DIVERGE WITH THE ECMWF DEVELOPING AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW
OVER THE NCNTRL PLAINS AND THE GFS DEVELOPING THE LOW FURTHER EAST
IN THE UPPER MIDWEST. STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WOULD BE POSSIBLE ON THE
ERN SIDE OF THE SYSTEM ALONG A MOIST AXIS IN THE MS VALLEY. ON
SATURDAY/DAY 7...THE UPPER-LEVEL MOVES INTO THE OH VALLEY WITH THE
ECMWF SLOWER. THIS WOULD MOVE THE SEVERE THREAT SATURDAY AFTERNOON
INTO THE ERN STATES. OTHER THAN THE DAY 5 OUTLOOK AREA...CONFIDENCE
IS NOT GREAT ENOUGH TO ADD A THREAT AREA IN THE MS VALLEY OR ERN
STATES.
..BROYLES.. 04/10/2011
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
|
|
weather.gov 
@NWSSPC
