|Day 4-8 Severe Weather Outlook Issued on May 21, 2011|
|Updated: Sat May 21 08:51:03 UTC 2011|
|D4||Tue, May 24, 2011 - Wed, May 25, 2011
||D7||Fri, May 27, 2011 - Sat, May 28, 2011
|D5||Wed, May 25, 2011 - Thu, May 26, 2011
||D8||Sat, May 28, 2011 - Sun, May 29, 2011
|D6||Thu, May 26, 2011 - Fri, May 27, 2011
||(All days are valid from 12 UTC - 12 UTC)
Note: A severe weather area depicted in the Day 4-8 period indicates a 30% or higher probability for severe thunderstorms within 25 miles of any point.
PREDICTABILITY TOO LOW is used to indicate severe storms may be possible based on some model scenarios. However, the location or occurrence of severe storms are in doubt due to: 1) large differences in the deterministic model solutions, 2) large spread in the ensemble guidance, and/or 3) minimal run-to-run continuity.
POTENTIAL TOO LOW means the threat for a regional area of organized severe storms appears highly unlikely during the entire period (e.g. less than a 30% probability for a regional severe storm area across the CONUS through the entire Day 4-8 period).
ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL
ACUS48 KWNS 210850
SPC AC 210850
DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0350 AM CDT SAT MAY 21 2011
VALID 241200Z - 291200Z
...SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE CNTRL/SRN PLAINS TUESDAY...
VARIABILITY AMONG THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS AND ENSEMBLES BECOMES
QUITE LARGE DURING THE MIDDLE AND LATTER PART OF THE PERIOD
CONCERNING THE UPPER FLOW EVOLUTION...BOTH ON THE SMALLER AND LARGER
SCALES. HOWEVER...GUIDANCE REMAINS SUGGESTIVE THAT THE MOST
SIGNIFICANT SHORT WAVE IMPULSE...EMERGING FROM A LARGER-SCALE TROUGH
EVOLVING OVER THE WESTERN STATES THIS WEEKEND...WILL ACCELERATE EAST
OF THE ROCKIES BY EARLY TUESDAY. IT SEEMS PROBABLE THAT THIS WILL
BE ACCOMPANIED BY A DEEPENING CYCLONE OVER THE SOUTH CENTRAL
PLAINS...WHERE A PREVAILING MOIST AND UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT SHOULD BE
SUPPORTIVE OF CONSIDERABLE STRONG/SEVERE STORM DEVELOPMENT. THE
GREATEST SEVERE RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS... INCLUDING POTENTIALLY
TORNADIC SUPERCELLS...APPEARS TO EXIST LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING ACROSS PARTS OF NORTH CENTRAL TEXAS AND CENTRAL/EASTERN
OKLAHOMA AND KANSAS.
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