|Day 4-8 Severe Weather Outlook Issued on Jun 19, 2011|
|Updated: Sun Jun 19 08:33:03 UTC 2011|
|D4||Wed, Jun 22, 2011 - Thu, Jun 23, 2011
||D7||Sat, Jun 25, 2011 - Sun, Jun 26, 2011
|D5||Thu, Jun 23, 2011 - Fri, Jun 24, 2011
||D8||Sun, Jun 26, 2011 - Mon, Jun 27, 2011
|D6||Fri, Jun 24, 2011 - Sat, Jun 25, 2011
||(All days are valid from 12 UTC - 12 UTC)
Note: A severe weather area depicted in the Day 4-8 period indicates a 30% or higher probability for severe thunderstorms within 25 miles of any point.
PREDICTABILITY TOO LOW is used to indicate severe storms may be possible based on some model scenarios. However, the location or occurrence of severe storms are in doubt due to: 1) large differences in the deterministic model solutions, 2) large spread in the ensemble guidance, and/or 3) minimal run-to-run continuity.
POTENTIAL TOO LOW means the threat for a regional area of organized severe storms appears highly unlikely during the entire period (e.g. less than a 30% probability for a regional severe storm area across the CONUS through the entire Day 4-8 period).
ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL
ACUS48 KWNS 190832
SPC AC 190832
DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0332 AM CDT SUN JUN 19 2011
VALID 221200Z - 271200Z
THROUGH DAY4 MODELS GENERALLY AGREE IN THE MOVEMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT
UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE PLAINS INTO THE UPPER MS VALLEY/UPPER GREAT
LAKES REGION. THIS FEATURE WILL GENERATE A BELT OF STRONG MID-HIGH
LEVEL WINDS THAT SHOULD TRANSLATE INTO THE OH VALLEY/LOWER GREAT
LAKES...COINCIDENT WITH A MOIST/UNSTABLE BOUNDARY LAYER. IF MODELS
ARE INDEED ACCURATE IN PLACING THIS STRONG MID LEVEL FEATURE OVER WI
AT 23/00Z...IT WOULD SEEM LIKELY THAT STRONG/SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE POSSIBLE DOWNSTREAM WHERE DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL BE MORE THAN
ADEQUATE FOR STORM ORGANIZATION.
BEYOND DAY4 MODELS DIVERGE IN THEIR SPEED/PLACEMENT OF THE UPPER
TROUGH...HENCE TOO MUCH UNCERTAINTY FOR A SEVERE RISK DAY5 AND
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