|
| Day 4-8 Severe Weather Outlook Issued on Aug 27, 2011 |
| Updated: Sat Aug 27 08:30:04 UTC 2011 |
 |
| D4 | Tue, Aug 30, 2011 - Wed, Aug 31, 2011 |
D7 | Fri, Sep 02, 2011 - Sat, Sep 03, 2011 |
| D5 | Wed, Aug 31, 2011 - Thu, Sep 01, 2011 |
D8 | Sat, Sep 03, 2011 - Sun, Sep 04, 2011 |
| D6 | Thu, Sep 01, 2011 - Fri, Sep 02, 2011 |
(All days are valid from 12 UTC - 12 UTC) |
|
Note: A severe weather area depicted in the Day 4-8 period indicates a 30% or higher probability for severe thunderstorms within 25 miles of any point.
|
|
PREDICTABILITY TOO LOW is used to indicate severe storms may be possible based on some model scenarios. However, the location or occurrence of severe storms are in doubt due to: 1) large differences in the deterministic model solutions, 2) large spread in the ensemble guidance, and/or 3) minimal run-to-run continuity.
|
|
POTENTIAL TOO LOW means the threat for a regional area of organized severe storms appears highly unlikely during the entire period (e.g. less than a 30% probability for a regional severe storm area across the CONUS through the entire Day 4-8 period).
|
ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL
ACUS48 KWNS 270829
SPC AC 270829
DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0329 AM CDT SAT AUG 27 2011
VALID 301200Z - 041200Z
...DISCUSSION...
LATEST MEDIUM RANGE MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE DOMINANT UPPER RIDGE
THAT HAS BEEN ANCHORED OVER THE SWRN U.S. MAY BE TEMPORARILY SHUNTED
EAST INTO THE MS VALLEY BY MID WEEK. THIS EVOLUTION WILL ALLOW MORE
TROUGHING ACROSS THE NRN ROCKIES/HIGH PLAINS. WITH TIME STRONGER
FLOW SHOULD OVERSPREAD THE NRN PLAINS/UPPER MS VALLEY THAT COULD
SUPPORT ROBUST/ORGANIZED TSTMS. HOWEVER...THE ECMWF AND GFS
DISAGREE ON WHEN THIS FEATURE IS EJECTED ACROSS THE NRN U.S. IN
ADDITION...CAPPING/INSTABILITY ISSUES DO NOT LEAD TO A LOT OF
CERTAINTY AND PREDICTABILITY REMAINS TOO LOW TO WARRANT AN ORGANIZED
RISK THIS PERIOD.
..DARROW.. 08/27/2011
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
|
|
weather.gov 
@NWSSPC
