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Day 4-8 Severe Weather Outlook Issued on Feb 24, 2012
Updated: Fri Feb 24 09:52:03 UTC 2012
Day 4-8 Severe Weather Outlook Graphics Issued on Feb 24, 2012
D4Mon, Feb 27, 2012 - Tue, Feb 28, 2012 D7Thu, Mar 01, 2012 - Fri, Mar 02, 2012
D5Tue, Feb 28, 2012 - Wed, Feb 29, 2012 D8Fri, Mar 02, 2012 - Sat, Mar 03, 2012
D6Wed, Feb 29, 2012 - Thu, Mar 01, 2012 (All days are valid from 12 UTC - 12 UTC)
Note: A severe weather area depicted in the Day 4-8 period indicates a 30% or higher probability for severe thunderstorms within 25 miles of any point.
PREDICTABILITY TOO LOW is used to indicate severe storms may be possible based on some model scenarios. However, the location or occurrence of severe storms are in doubt due to: 1) large differences in the deterministic model solutions, 2) large spread in the ensemble guidance, and/or 3) minimal run-to-run continuity.
POTENTIAL TOO LOW means the threat for a regional area of organized severe storms appears highly unlikely during the entire period (e.g. less than a 30% probability for a regional severe storm area across the CONUS through the entire Day 4-8 period).

 Forecast Discussion

   ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL
   ACUS48 KWNS 240951
   SPC AC 240951
   
   DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0351 AM CST FRI FEB 24 2012
   
   VALID 271200Z - 031200Z
   
   ...DISCUSSION...
   HIGH-AMPLITUDE SHORTWAVE TROUGH SHOULD EVOLVE OVER W COAST STATES BY
   START OF PERIOD...FROM PHASING OF SEVERAL VORTICITY FIELDS
   ASSOCIATED WITH TROUGHS NOW OVER N-CENTRAL/NERN PAC.  THOUGH
   DIFFERING IN AMPLITUDE...MREF MEMBERS AND OPERATIONAL
   SPECTRAL/ECMWF/UKMET ARE MOSTLY CONSISTENT WITH TIMING OF 500-MB
   WAVE AND ACCOMPANYING DEEP SFC CYCLONE MOVING ENEWD FROM CENTRAL
   HIGH PLAINS TOWARD UPPER MS VALLEY DAY-5/28TH-29TH.  PRIOR/STG FROPA
   WILL RESTRICT MOISTURE RECOVERY/RETURN INTO THIS SYSTEM...THOUGH SFC
   DEW POINTS 50S F MAY REACH MOST KINEMATICALLY FAVORABLE AREAS NEAR
   SFC LOW.
   
   MOISTURE IS PRIMARY UNCERTAINTY PRECLUDING CATEGORICAL/30% SVR AREA
   WITH THIS SYSTEM ATTM...THOUGH AT LEAST SOME SVR CERTAINLY APPEARS
   POSSIBLE GIVEN STRENGTH OF DEEP-LAYER FLOW LIKELY OVER CORN BELT AND
   LOWER MO VALLEY. EML/CAPPING TYPICALLY STRENGTHENS WITH SWD EXTENT
   IN THESE PATTERNS...WHILE FRONTAL/DRYLINE CONVERGENCE
   DECREASES...OFFSETTING FAVORABLY HIGHER LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE.  AS A
   RESULT...KS/OK SVR THREAT ALSO APPEARS TOO UNCERTAIN FOR CATEGORICAL
   AREA ATTM.  AFTER DAY-5...POTENTIAL IS TOO CONDITIONAL FOR OUTLOOK
   GIVEN FROPA ASSOCIATED WITH DAY-5 SYSTEM AND SUBSEQUENT VARIABILITY
   IN PROGS OF UPPER WAVES.
   
   ..EDWARDS.. 02/24/2012

   CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

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