Skip Navigation Links weather.gov 
NOAA logo-Select to go to the NOAA homepage NOAA's National Weather Service   Select to go to the NWS homepage
Storm Prediction Center
navigation bar left  
  navigation bar end cap


 
USA.gov is the U.S. Government's official Web portal to all Federal, state and local government Web resources and services.

Day 4-8 Severe Weather Outlook Issued on Feb 25, 2012
Updated: Sat Feb 25 10:00:02 UTC 2012
Day 4-8 Severe Weather Outlook Graphics Issued on Feb 25, 2012
D4Tue, Feb 28, 2012 - Wed, Feb 29, 2012 D7Fri, Mar 02, 2012 - Sat, Mar 03, 2012
D5Wed, Feb 29, 2012 - Thu, Mar 01, 2012 D8Sat, Mar 03, 2012 - Sun, Mar 04, 2012
D6Thu, Mar 01, 2012 - Fri, Mar 02, 2012 (All days are valid from 12 UTC - 12 UTC)
Note: A severe weather area depicted in the Day 4-8 period indicates a 30% or higher probability for severe thunderstorms within 25 miles of any point.
PREDICTABILITY TOO LOW is used to indicate severe storms may be possible based on some model scenarios. However, the location or occurrence of severe storms are in doubt due to: 1) large differences in the deterministic model solutions, 2) large spread in the ensemble guidance, and/or 3) minimal run-to-run continuity.
POTENTIAL TOO LOW means the threat for a regional area of organized severe storms appears highly unlikely during the entire period (e.g. less than a 30% probability for a regional severe storm area across the CONUS through the entire Day 4-8 period).

 Forecast Discussion

   ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL
   ACUS48 KWNS 250959
   SPC AC 250959
   
   DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0359 AM CST SAT FEB 25 2012
   
   VALID 281200Z - 041200Z
   
   ...DISCUSSION...
   WRN CONUS TROUGHING DESCRIBED IN DAY-3 OUTLOOK WILL LEAD TO
   STG/DEEP-LAYER CYCLONE TRACKING FROM CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS TO UPPER MS
   VALLEY DAY-4/28TH-29TH.  MOST CONFIDENT SVR POTENTIAL...INCLUDING
   THREAT FOR TORNADOES...IS OVERNIGHT OVER PORTIONS
   OZARKS/MID-SOUTH/ARKLATEX REGIONS.  STG MID-UPPER WINDS -- I.E.
   50-70 KT AT 500 MB -- AND HODOGRAPH-ENLARGING LLJ SHOULD OVERSPREAD
   SFC DEW POINTS INCREASING TO 60S F.  FARTHER N...PRIND MOISTURE
   RETURN WILL BE MEAGER INTO AREA NEAR SFC LOW...ALTHOUGH STRENGTH OF
   DEEP-LAYER LIFT AND WIND FIELDS SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT AT
   LEAST MRGL SVR THREAT WITH ANY SUSTAINED/SFC-BASED CONVECTION THAT
   CAN FORM.  POTENTIAL OVER CORN BELT APPEARS TOO CONDITIONAL ATTM TO
   EXTEND CATEGORICAL AREA THERE.
   
   MIDWEST SYSTEM SHOULD DEAMPLIFY SOMEWHAT AND OUTPACE GULF MOISTURE
   RETURN DAY-5/29TH-1ST...THOUGH SVR POTENTIAL IN SRN
   APPALACHIANS/PIEDMONT REGION AND CAROLINAS CANNOT BE RULED OUT. 
   NEXT SUBSTANTIAL MID-UPPER TROUGH SHOULD CROSS CENTRAL/NRN ROCKIES
   DAY-6/1ST-2ND...WITH SFC CYCLOGENESIS OVER CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS. 
   SOME SVR IS POSSIBLE DAYS 6-7/1ST-3RD FROM SRN/CENTRAL PLAINS TOWARD
   LOWER OH VALLEY AS SFC CYCLONE EJECTS FROM HIGH PLAINS...HOWEVER
   SPREAD IN VARIOUS MREF/OPERATIONAL PROGS IS TOO LARGE TO ASSIGN
   CATEGORICAL OUTLOOK ATTM.
   
   ..EDWARDS.. 02/25/2012

   CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

Weather Topics:
Watches, Mesoscale Discussions, Outlooks, Fire Weather, All Products, Contact Us

NOAA / National Weather Service
National Centers for Environmental Prediction
Storm Prediction Center
120 David L. Boren Blvd.
Norman, OK 73072 U.S.A.
spc.feedback@noaa.gov
Page last modified:
Disclaimer
Information Quality
Help
Glossary
Privacy Policy
Freedom of Information Act (FOIA)
About Us
Career Opportunities