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Day 4-8 Severe Weather Outlook Issued on Feb 26, 2012
Updated: Sun Feb 26 09:49:03 UTC 2012
Day 4-8 Severe Weather Outlook Graphics Issued on Feb 26, 2012
D4Wed, Feb 29, 2012 - Thu, Mar 01, 2012 D7Sat, Mar 03, 2012 - Sun, Mar 04, 2012
D5Thu, Mar 01, 2012 - Fri, Mar 02, 2012 D8Sun, Mar 04, 2012 - Mon, Mar 05, 2012
D6Fri, Mar 02, 2012 - Sat, Mar 03, 2012 (All days are valid from 12 UTC - 12 UTC)
Note: A severe weather area depicted in the Day 4-8 period indicates a 30% or higher probability for severe thunderstorms within 25 miles of any point.
PREDICTABILITY TOO LOW is used to indicate severe storms may be possible based on some model scenarios. However, the location or occurrence of severe storms are in doubt due to: 1) large differences in the deterministic model solutions, 2) large spread in the ensemble guidance, and/or 3) minimal run-to-run continuity.
POTENTIAL TOO LOW means the threat for a regional area of organized severe storms appears highly unlikely during the entire period (e.g. less than a 30% probability for a regional severe storm area across the CONUS through the entire Day 4-8 period).

 Forecast Discussion

   ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL
   ACUS48 KWNS 260948
   SPC AC 260948
   
   DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0348 AM CST SUN FEB 26 2012
   
   VALID 291200Z - 051200Z
   
   ...DISCUSSION...
   DEEP-LAYER CYCLONE DISCUSSED IN DAY-3 OUTLOOK SHOULD MOVE EWD FROM
   MN/IA BORDER REGION TOWARD WRN NY DAY-4/29TH-1ST...WHILE SFC COLD
   FRONT BECOMES WSW-ENE ALIGNED FROM LOWER MS VALLEY TO SRN
   APPALACHIANS REGION.  DAY-4 CORRIDOR OF SVR POTENTIAL MAY DEVELOP
   FROM MS ENEWD ACROSS AL/GA TO PORTIONS CAROLINAS...ALONG/AHEAD OF
   FRONT AND PERHAPS ACCOMPANYING PREFRONTAL CONFLUENCE AREA.  STG
   DEEP-LAYER WINDS WILL OVERLIE 60S F SFC DEW POINTS DURING DIURNAL
   HEATING PERIOD OVER MS-GA CORRIDOR...THOUGH FLOW ALOFT MAY BE NEARLY
   PARALLEL TO FRONTAL ZONE.  MAGNITUDE...DENSITY AND DOMINANT MODE OF
   SVR ALL REMAIN RATHER UNCERTAIN ATTM.  WHILE SOME SVR AREA PROBABLY
   WILL BE NEEDED IN FUTURE OUTLOOKS VALID THIS PERIOD...RISK APPEARS
   INADEQUATELY FOCUSED FOR AOA-30% THRESHOLD LINE.  SECONDARY AREA OF
   AT LEAST MRGL SVR POTENTIAL MAY DEVELOP CLOSER TO DEEP-LAYER CYCLONE
   OVER OH VALLEY REGION...THOUGH MOISTURE/INSTABILITY WILL BE MORE
   LIMITED THAT FAR N.
   
   NEXT SIGNIFICANT MID-UPPER WAVE WILL TAKE SHAPE FROM PERTURBATIONS
   NOW OVER BERING SEA AND FAR ERN SIBERIA.  BROAD AREA OF CYCLONIC
   FLOW WITH SEVERAL EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES IS FCST OVER NRN/CENTRAL
   ROCKIES AND NRN PLAINS DAY-5/1ST-2ND...SHIFTING EWD OVER CENTRAL/NRN
   PLAINS DAY-6/2ND-3RD.  RESULTANT HEIGHT FALLS AND LEE-SIDE
   CYCLOGENESIS MAY YIELD SUFFICIENT DEEP-LAYER SHEAR AND MOISTURE
   RETURN TO SUPPORT SOME SVR THREAT LATE DAY-5 FROM SRN PLAINS TO OH
   VALLEY.  ATTM...PROG DIFFERENCES IN CRUCIAL SHORTWAVE DETAILS...AND
   THEIR EFFECTS ON LOW-LEVEL MASS FIELDS...ARE TOO GREAT TO DELINEATE
   SPECIFIC SVR AREA.
   
   ..EDWARDS.. 02/26/2012

   CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

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