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Day 4-8 Severe Weather Outlook Issued on Feb 27, 2012
Updated: Mon Feb 27 09:47:03 UTC 2012
Day 4-8 Severe Weather Outlook Graphics Issued on Feb 27, 2012
D4Thu, Mar 01, 2012 - Fri, Mar 02, 2012 D7Sun, Mar 04, 2012 - Mon, Mar 05, 2012
D5Fri, Mar 02, 2012 - Sat, Mar 03, 2012 D8Mon, Mar 05, 2012 - Tue, Mar 06, 2012
D6Sat, Mar 03, 2012 - Sun, Mar 04, 2012 (All days are valid from 12 UTC - 12 UTC)
Note: A severe weather area depicted in the Day 4-8 period indicates a 30% or higher probability for severe thunderstorms within 25 miles of any point.
PREDICTABILITY TOO LOW is used to indicate severe storms may be possible based on some model scenarios. However, the location or occurrence of severe storms are in doubt due to: 1) large differences in the deterministic model solutions, 2) large spread in the ensemble guidance, and/or 3) minimal run-to-run continuity.
POTENTIAL TOO LOW means the threat for a regional area of organized severe storms appears highly unlikely during the entire period (e.g. less than a 30% probability for a regional severe storm area across the CONUS through the entire Day 4-8 period).

 Forecast Discussion

   ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL
   ACUS48 KWNS 270946
   SPC AC 270946
   
   DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0346 AM CST MON FEB 27 2012
   
   VALID 011200Z - 061200Z
   
   ...DISCUSSION...
   IN MID-UPPER LEVELS...PAC JET MAX MOVING INTO GREAT BASIN REGION
   SHOULD CONTRIBUTE TO DAY-4/1ST-2ND AMPLIFICATION OF WRN-CONUS
   SYNOPTIC-SCALE TROUGHING.  THIS WILL YIELD SIGNIFICANT SFC
   CYCLOGENESIS OVER CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS.  HOWEVER...CONSIDERABLE
   DIFFERENCES IN SHORTWAVE DETAILS AMONGST MREF MEMBERS...AND BETWEEN
   OPERATIONAL SPECTRAL/UKMET/ECMWF...RESULT IN GREAT VARIATION OF
   TIMING/DEPTH/TRACK OF THIS LOW...AND OF RELATED BOUNDARIES.  THESE
   DISCREPANCIES SPREAD APART EVEN MORE DAY-5/2ND-3RD.  POLEWARD EXTENT
   OF FAVORABLE MOISTURE RETURN ALSO IS IN QUESTION FOLLOWING PASSAGE
   OF COLD FRONT DESCRIBED IN DAY-3 OUTLOOK.  SOME SVR IS LIKELY DURING
   DAY-4/DAY-5 TIME FRAME...GENERALLY FROM SRN PLAINS TO LOWER/MID MS
   VALLEY AND OH VALLEY REGIONS.  ATTM...HOWEVER...THERE IS TOO MUCH
   UNCERTAINTY TO NAIL DOWN SPECIFIC AREA OF 30% UNCONDITIONAL
   PROBABILITIES.
   
   ..EDWARDS.. 02/27/2012

   CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

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