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Day 4-8 Severe Weather Outlook Issued on Feb 28, 2012
Updated: Tue Feb 28 09:52:02 UTC 2012
Day 4-8 Severe Weather Outlook Graphics Issued on Feb 28, 2012
D4Fri, Mar 02, 2012 - Sat, Mar 03, 2012 D7Mon, Mar 05, 2012 - Tue, Mar 06, 2012
D5Sat, Mar 03, 2012 - Sun, Mar 04, 2012 D8Tue, Mar 06, 2012 - Wed, Mar 07, 2012
D6Sun, Mar 04, 2012 - Mon, Mar 05, 2012 (All days are valid from 12 UTC - 12 UTC)
Note: A severe weather area depicted in the Day 4-8 period indicates a 30% or higher probability for severe thunderstorms within 25 miles of any point.
PREDICTABILITY TOO LOW is used to indicate severe storms may be possible based on some model scenarios. However, the location or occurrence of severe storms are in doubt due to: 1) large differences in the deterministic model solutions, 2) large spread in the ensemble guidance, and/or 3) minimal run-to-run continuity.
POTENTIAL TOO LOW means the threat for a regional area of organized severe storms appears highly unlikely during the entire period (e.g. less than a 30% probability for a regional severe storm area across the CONUS through the entire Day 4-8 period).

 Forecast Discussion

   ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL
   ACUS48 KWNS 280951
   SPC AC 280951
   
   DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0351 AM CST TUE FEB 28 2012
   
   VALID 021200Z - 071200Z
   
   ...DISCUSSION...
   IN MID-UPPER LEVELS...PROGRESSIVE WRN-CONUS TROUGH DESCRIBED IN DAYS
   2-3 OUTLOOKS WILL PROCEED EWD ACROSS UPPER MIDWEST AND CENTRAL
   PLAINS DAY-4/2ND-3RD.  MREF MEMBERS AND OPERATIONAL PROGS VARY A
   GREAT DEAL ON AMPLITUDE OF THIS SYSTEM BY THEN.  THEY ALSO VARY
   CONSIDERABLY ON POLEWARD EXTENT OF WARM-SECTOR SFC ISODROSOTHERMS IN
   50S/60S F...WHILE DIFFERING SOMEWHAT ON TIMING OF OTHER SFC AND
   MIDLEVEL FEATURES.  IN MOST SCENARIOS...HOWEVER...SFC COLD FRONT
   SHOULD SWEEP EWD/SEWD ACROSS LOWER-MID MS VALLEY AND LOWER OH VALLEY
   DAY-4...WHILE SFC LOW LIFTS NEWD FROM SRN/CENTRAL PLAINS TO GREAT
   LAKES.  POSITIVELY-TILTED NATURE OF MID-UPPER TROUGH...WITH
   APPRECIABLE LARGE-SCALE ASCENT LAGGING BEHIND COLD FRONT...INDICATE
   1. LAPSE RATES WILL BE WEAK ABOVE SFC FRONT AND IN WARM SECTOR...AND
   2. BOUNDARY-PARALLEL FLOW ALOFT.  THIS CERTAINLY DOES NOT *PRECLUDE*
   SVR...IN FACT...SOME PART OF PREFRONTAL CORRIDOR MAY NEED AOA 30%
   PROBABILITIES IN FUTURE OUTLOOKS VALID THIS DAY.  HOWEVER...THREAT
   APPEARS TOO UNCERTAIN SPATIALLY FOR UNCONDITIONAL 30% AREA ATTM.
   
   THEREAFTER...PRESENCE OF DEEP/ERN CONUS TROUGH ALOFT AND LACK OF
   LOW-LEVEL THETAE SHOULD REDUCE SVR RISK TO BELOW CATEGORICAL 30%
   CRITERIA.
   
   ..EDWARDS.. 02/28/2012

   CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

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