|Day 4-8 Severe Weather Outlook Issued on May 28, 2012|
|Updated: Mon May 28 08:54:03 UTC 2012|
|D4||Thu, May 31, 2012 - Fri, Jun 01, 2012
||D7||Sun, Jun 03, 2012 - Mon, Jun 04, 2012
|D5||Fri, Jun 01, 2012 - Sat, Jun 02, 2012
||D8||Mon, Jun 04, 2012 - Tue, Jun 05, 2012
|D6||Sat, Jun 02, 2012 - Sun, Jun 03, 2012
||(All days are valid from 12 UTC - 12 UTC)
Note: A severe weather area depicted in the Day 4-8 period indicates a 30% or higher probability for severe thunderstorms within 25 miles of any point.
PREDICTABILITY TOO LOW is used to indicate severe storms may be possible based on some model scenarios. However, the location or occurrence of severe storms are in doubt due to: 1) large differences in the deterministic model solutions, 2) large spread in the ensemble guidance, and/or 3) minimal run-to-run continuity.
POTENTIAL TOO LOW means the threat for a regional area of organized severe storms appears highly unlikely during the entire period (e.g. less than a 30% probability for a regional severe storm area across the CONUS through the entire Day 4-8 period).
ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL
ACUS48 KWNS 280853
SPC AC 280853
DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0353 AM CDT MON MAY 28 2012
VALID 311200Z - 051200Z
AMID A PERSISTENT SPLIT UPPER FLOW REGIME ACROSS THE
CONUS/CANADA...AND WITH AMPLIFICATION DURING THE DAY 3
PERIOD...MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE IS GENERALLY SUGGESTIVE OF AN
EASTWARD-SHIFTING UPPER TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CONUS ON
DAYS 4-5 THURSDAY/FRIDAY. THAT SAID...CONSIDERABLE VARIABILITY
EXISTS AMONGST 00Z-BASED ECMWF/UKMET/GEFS GUIDANCE REGARDING THE
SPECIFIC DETAILS OF AMPLIFICATION/TIMING.
WHILE THIS GUIDANCE VARIABILITY PRECLUDES SPECIFIC DELINEATIONS OF
30 PERCENT CALIBER SEVERE RISK AREAS...SEVERE TSTMS /POTENTIALLY
WIDESPREAD/ CAN NONETHELESS BE EXPECTED. FOR DAY
4/THURSDAY...SOMEWHAT PENDING MESOSCALE DETAILS FROM THE PRIOR
DAY...SEVERE TSTMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS AREAS SUCH AS THE
OZARKS/ARKLATEX TO THE LOWER/MIDDLE MS RIVER VALLEY...AND PERHAPS
EVEN PORTIONS OF THE TN/OH RIVER VALLEYS THURSDAY NIGHT/EARLY
FRIDAY. FOR DAY 5/FRIDAY...SEVERE TSTMS WILL BE POSSIBLE SOMEWHERE
WITHIN A GENERAL CORRIDOR FROM THE TN VALLEY/SOUTHEAST STATES TO THE
APPALACHIANS/CAROLINAS AND PERHAPS MID-ATLANTIC STATES /ESPECIALLY
PER THE FASTER 00Z ECMWF SOLUTION/. THEREAFTER...EARLY INDICATIONS
ARE THAT SEVERE TSTM POTENTIAL COULD INCREASE LATE THIS
WEEKEND/EARLY NEXT WEEK ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS.
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