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| Day 4-8 Severe Weather Outlook Issued on May 29, 2012 |
| Updated: Tue May 29 08:52:03 UTC 2012 |
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| D4 | Fri, Jun 01, 2012 - Sat, Jun 02, 2012 |
D7 | Mon, Jun 04, 2012 - Tue, Jun 05, 2012 |
| D5 | Sat, Jun 02, 2012 - Sun, Jun 03, 2012 |
D8 | Tue, Jun 05, 2012 - Wed, Jun 06, 2012 |
| D6 | Sun, Jun 03, 2012 - Mon, Jun 04, 2012 |
(All days are valid from 12 UTC - 12 UTC) |
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Note: A severe weather area depicted in the Day 4-8 period indicates a 30% or higher probability for severe thunderstorms within 25 miles of any point.
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PREDICTABILITY TOO LOW is used to indicate severe storms may be possible based on some model scenarios. However, the location or occurrence of severe storms are in doubt due to: 1) large differences in the deterministic model solutions, 2) large spread in the ensemble guidance, and/or 3) minimal run-to-run continuity.
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POTENTIAL TOO LOW means the threat for a regional area of organized severe storms appears highly unlikely during the entire period (e.g. less than a 30% probability for a regional severe storm area across the CONUS through the entire Day 4-8 period).
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ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL
ACUS48 KWNS 290850
SPC AC 290850
DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0350 AM CDT TUE MAY 29 2012
VALID 011200Z - 061200Z
...DISCUSSION...
MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE IS GENERALLY SUGGESTIVE OF AN
EAST-NORTHEASTWARD SHIFTING UPPER TROUGH OVER THE MIDWEST/GREAT
LAKES REGION AND NORTHEAST STATES DURING THE FIRST TWO DAYS OF
JUNE...WITH A RELATIVELY LOW AMPLITUDE BELT OF WESTERLIES OTHERWISE
OVER THE NORTHERN THIRD OF THE CONUS.
NUMERICAL GUIDANCE VARIABILITY/UNCERTAINTIES CONTINUE TO PRECLUDE A
SPECIFIC DELINEATION OF 30 PERCENT CALIBER SEVERE RISKS...ALTHOUGH
SEVERE TSTMS CAN NONETHELESS BE EXPECTED...POTENTIALLY EVEN ON A
WIDESPREAD BASIS ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS ON DAY 4/FRIDAY. ON
FRIDAY...SEVERE TSTMS SEEM LIKELY WITHIN A GENERAL CORRIDOR FROM THE
TN VALLEY/SOUTHEAST STATES TO THE APPALACHIANS/CAROLINAS AND PERHAPS
MID-ATLANTIC STATES...WITH 00Z GFS-BASED GUIDANCE GENERALLY
SLOWER/FARTHER WEST AS COMPARED TO THE FASTER/FARTHER EAST 00Z
ECMWF. A SEVERE THREAT COULD EVEN LINGER INTO DAY 5/SATURDAY FOR
AREAS SUCH AS THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST/COASTAL CAROLINAS SHOULD A
SLOWER TROUGH/COLD FRONT SOLUTION MATERIALIZE AS PER 00Z
DETERMINISTIC GFS/GEFS GUIDANCE.
THEREAFTER...INDICATIONS ARE THAT SEVERE TSTM POTENTIAL COULD
INCREASE...AT LEAST ON AN ISOLATED BASIS...THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK ACROSS THE NORTH-CENTRAL CONUS. THIS COULD INITIALLY BE
THE CASE ACROSS THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS ON DAY 5/SATURDAY...AND
THEN THE UPPER MIDWEST/UPPER MS RIVER VALLEY ON OR AROUND DAYS 6/7
SUNDAY/MONDAY.
..GUYER.. 05/29/2012
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
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