|Day 4-8 Severe Weather Outlook Issued on May 29, 2012|
|Updated: Tue May 29 08:52:03 UTC 2012|
|D4||Fri, Jun 01, 2012 - Sat, Jun 02, 2012
||D7||Mon, Jun 04, 2012 - Tue, Jun 05, 2012
|D5||Sat, Jun 02, 2012 - Sun, Jun 03, 2012
||D8||Tue, Jun 05, 2012 - Wed, Jun 06, 2012
|D6||Sun, Jun 03, 2012 - Mon, Jun 04, 2012
||(All days are valid from 12 UTC - 12 UTC)
Note: A severe weather area depicted in the Day 4-8 period indicates a 30% or higher probability for severe thunderstorms within 25 miles of any point.
PREDICTABILITY TOO LOW is used to indicate severe storms may be possible based on some model scenarios. However, the location or occurrence of severe storms are in doubt due to: 1) large differences in the deterministic model solutions, 2) large spread in the ensemble guidance, and/or 3) minimal run-to-run continuity.
POTENTIAL TOO LOW means the threat for a regional area of organized severe storms appears highly unlikely during the entire period (e.g. less than a 30% probability for a regional severe storm area across the CONUS through the entire Day 4-8 period).
ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL
ACUS48 KWNS 290850
SPC AC 290850
DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0350 AM CDT TUE MAY 29 2012
VALID 011200Z - 061200Z
MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE IS GENERALLY SUGGESTIVE OF AN
EAST-NORTHEASTWARD SHIFTING UPPER TROUGH OVER THE MIDWEST/GREAT
LAKES REGION AND NORTHEAST STATES DURING THE FIRST TWO DAYS OF
JUNE...WITH A RELATIVELY LOW AMPLITUDE BELT OF WESTERLIES OTHERWISE
OVER THE NORTHERN THIRD OF THE CONUS.
NUMERICAL GUIDANCE VARIABILITY/UNCERTAINTIES CONTINUE TO PRECLUDE A
SPECIFIC DELINEATION OF 30 PERCENT CALIBER SEVERE RISKS...ALTHOUGH
SEVERE TSTMS CAN NONETHELESS BE EXPECTED...POTENTIALLY EVEN ON A
WIDESPREAD BASIS ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS ON DAY 4/FRIDAY. ON
FRIDAY...SEVERE TSTMS SEEM LIKELY WITHIN A GENERAL CORRIDOR FROM THE
TN VALLEY/SOUTHEAST STATES TO THE APPALACHIANS/CAROLINAS AND PERHAPS
MID-ATLANTIC STATES...WITH 00Z GFS-BASED GUIDANCE GENERALLY
SLOWER/FARTHER WEST AS COMPARED TO THE FASTER/FARTHER EAST 00Z
ECMWF. A SEVERE THREAT COULD EVEN LINGER INTO DAY 5/SATURDAY FOR
AREAS SUCH AS THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST/COASTAL CAROLINAS SHOULD A
SLOWER TROUGH/COLD FRONT SOLUTION MATERIALIZE AS PER 00Z
DETERMINISTIC GFS/GEFS GUIDANCE.
THEREAFTER...INDICATIONS ARE THAT SEVERE TSTM POTENTIAL COULD
INCREASE...AT LEAST ON AN ISOLATED BASIS...THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK ACROSS THE NORTH-CENTRAL CONUS. THIS COULD INITIALLY BE
THE CASE ACROSS THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS ON DAY 5/SATURDAY...AND
THEN THE UPPER MIDWEST/UPPER MS RIVER VALLEY ON OR AROUND DAYS 6/7
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