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| Day 4-8 Severe Weather Outlook Issued on Aug 25, 2012 |
| Updated: Sat Aug 25 09:01:03 UTC 2012 |
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| D4 | Tue, Aug 28, 2012 - Wed, Aug 29, 2012 |
D7 | Fri, Aug 31, 2012 - Sat, Sep 01, 2012 |
| D5 | Wed, Aug 29, 2012 - Thu, Aug 30, 2012 |
D8 | Sat, Sep 01, 2012 - Sun, Sep 02, 2012 |
| D6 | Thu, Aug 30, 2012 - Fri, Aug 31, 2012 |
(All days are valid from 12 UTC - 12 UTC) |
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Note: A severe weather area depicted in the Day 4-8 period indicates a 30% or higher probability for severe thunderstorms within 25 miles of any point.
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PREDICTABILITY TOO LOW is used to indicate severe storms may be possible based on some model scenarios. However, the location or occurrence of severe storms are in doubt due to: 1) large differences in the deterministic model solutions, 2) large spread in the ensemble guidance, and/or 3) minimal run-to-run continuity.
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POTENTIAL TOO LOW means the threat for a regional area of organized severe storms appears highly unlikely during the entire period (e.g. less than a 30% probability for a regional severe storm area across the CONUS through the entire Day 4-8 period).
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ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL
ACUS48 KWNS 250900
SPC AC 250900
DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0400 AM CDT SAT AUG 25 2012
VALID 281200Z - 021200Z
...DISCUSSION...
00Z ECMWF/GEFS/UKMET ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT REGARDING THE LIKELY
PERSISTENCE OF A RELATIVELY AMPLIFIED BELT OF WESTERLIES OVER CANADA
AND THE NORTHERN TIER OF THE CONUS FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD...ALTHOUGH
MODEL VARIABILITY REGARDING LOWER AMPLITUDE FEATURES INCREASES BY
MID-WEEK /DAY 5/ AND BEYOND.
THE PRIMARY FOCUS FOR THE OUTLOOK PERIOD WILL RELATED TO THE
PROBABLE LANDFALL/INLAND MOVEMENT OF ISAAC ACROSS THE GULF COAST
REGION/SOUTHEAST STATES BASED ON THE LATEST NHC FORECAST
TRACK/INTENSITY. IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE PERIPHERAL OUTER
BANDS/EVENTUAL REMNANTS OF ISAAC...A TORNADO THREAT WILL LIKELY BE A
DISTINCT POSSIBILITY ACROSS PORTIONS OF FL/GA/AL ON DAY
4/TUESDAY...AND A SEVERE RISK AREA HAS BEEN INCLUDED FOR THIS
SCENARIO. TORNADO POTENTIAL MAY CONTINUE INTO DAYS 5-6
WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF COAST/SOUTHEAST
STATES...ALTHOUGH VARIABILITY/UNCERTAINTY INCREASES MARKEDLY BY THIS
TIME FRAME REGARDING THE DETAILS.
ELSEWHERE...AT LEAST SOME SEVERE POTENTIAL MAY EXIST MID INTO LATE
WEEK ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND/OR UPPER MIDWEST.
HOWEVER...UNCERTAINTY EXISTS REGARDING THE FORECAST ADVANCEMENT OF A
LOWER AMPLITUDE TROUGH OVER SOUTHERN CANADA AND THE
NORTHWEST/NORTH-CENTRAL CONUS DURING THIS TIME FRAME.
..GUYER.. 08/25/2012
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
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