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Day 4-8 Severe Weather Outlook Issued on Aug 25, 2012
Updated: Sat Aug 25 09:01:03 UTC 2012
Day 4-8 Severe Weather Outlook Graphics Issued on Aug 25, 2012
D4Tue, Aug 28, 2012 - Wed, Aug 29, 2012 D7Fri, Aug 31, 2012 - Sat, Sep 01, 2012
D5Wed, Aug 29, 2012 - Thu, Aug 30, 2012 D8Sat, Sep 01, 2012 - Sun, Sep 02, 2012
D6Thu, Aug 30, 2012 - Fri, Aug 31, 2012 (All days are valid from 12 UTC - 12 UTC)
Note: A severe weather area depicted in the Day 4-8 period indicates a 30% or higher probability for severe thunderstorms within 25 miles of any point.
PREDICTABILITY TOO LOW is used to indicate severe storms may be possible based on some model scenarios. However, the location or occurrence of severe storms are in doubt due to: 1) large differences in the deterministic model solutions, 2) large spread in the ensemble guidance, and/or 3) minimal run-to-run continuity.
POTENTIAL TOO LOW means the threat for a regional area of organized severe storms appears highly unlikely during the entire period (e.g. less than a 30% probability for a regional severe storm area across the CONUS through the entire Day 4-8 period).

 Forecast Discussion

   ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL
   ACUS48 KWNS 250900
   SPC AC 250900
   
   DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0400 AM CDT SAT AUG 25 2012
   
   VALID 281200Z - 021200Z
   
   ...DISCUSSION...
   00Z ECMWF/GEFS/UKMET ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT REGARDING THE LIKELY
   PERSISTENCE OF A RELATIVELY AMPLIFIED BELT OF WESTERLIES OVER CANADA
   AND THE NORTHERN TIER OF THE CONUS FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD...ALTHOUGH
   MODEL VARIABILITY REGARDING LOWER AMPLITUDE FEATURES INCREASES BY
   MID-WEEK /DAY 5/ AND BEYOND.
   
   THE PRIMARY FOCUS FOR THE OUTLOOK PERIOD WILL RELATED TO THE
   PROBABLE LANDFALL/INLAND MOVEMENT OF ISAAC ACROSS THE GULF COAST
   REGION/SOUTHEAST STATES BASED ON THE LATEST NHC FORECAST
   TRACK/INTENSITY. IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE PERIPHERAL OUTER
   BANDS/EVENTUAL REMNANTS OF ISAAC...A TORNADO THREAT WILL LIKELY BE A
   DISTINCT POSSIBILITY ACROSS PORTIONS OF FL/GA/AL ON DAY
   4/TUESDAY...AND A SEVERE RISK AREA HAS BEEN INCLUDED FOR THIS
   SCENARIO. TORNADO POTENTIAL MAY CONTINUE INTO DAYS 5-6
   WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF COAST/SOUTHEAST
   STATES...ALTHOUGH VARIABILITY/UNCERTAINTY INCREASES MARKEDLY BY THIS
   TIME FRAME REGARDING THE DETAILS.
   
   ELSEWHERE...AT LEAST SOME SEVERE POTENTIAL MAY EXIST MID INTO LATE
   WEEK ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND/OR UPPER MIDWEST.
   HOWEVER...UNCERTAINTY EXISTS REGARDING THE FORECAST ADVANCEMENT OF A
   LOWER AMPLITUDE TROUGH OVER SOUTHERN CANADA AND THE
   NORTHWEST/NORTH-CENTRAL CONUS DURING THIS TIME FRAME.
   
   ..GUYER.. 08/25/2012

   CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

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