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Day 4-8 Severe Weather Outlook Issued on Aug 26, 2012
Updated: Sun Aug 26 08:08:03 UTC 2012
Day 4-8 Severe Weather Outlook Graphics Issued on Aug 26, 2012
D4Wed, Aug 29, 2012 - Thu, Aug 30, 2012 D7Sat, Sep 01, 2012 - Sun, Sep 02, 2012
D5Thu, Aug 30, 2012 - Fri, Aug 31, 2012 D8Sun, Sep 02, 2012 - Mon, Sep 03, 2012
D6Fri, Aug 31, 2012 - Sat, Sep 01, 2012 (All days are valid from 12 UTC - 12 UTC)
Note: A severe weather area depicted in the Day 4-8 period indicates a 30% or higher probability for severe thunderstorms within 25 miles of any point.
PREDICTABILITY TOO LOW is used to indicate severe storms may be possible based on some model scenarios. However, the location or occurrence of severe storms are in doubt due to: 1) large differences in the deterministic model solutions, 2) large spread in the ensemble guidance, and/or 3) minimal run-to-run continuity.
POTENTIAL TOO LOW means the threat for a regional area of organized severe storms appears highly unlikely during the entire period (e.g. less than a 30% probability for a regional severe storm area across the CONUS through the entire Day 4-8 period).

 Forecast Discussion

   ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL
   ACUS48 KWNS 260807
   SPC AC 260807
   
   DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0307 AM CDT SUN AUG 26 2012
   
   VALID 291200Z - 031200Z
   
   ...DISCUSSION...
   MEDIUM-RANGE MODEL DIFFERENCES -- PRIMARILY CENTERED ON HANDLING OF
   TROPICAL SYSTEM ISAAC AS IT MOVES ONSHORE/INLAND -- ARE APPARENT
   THIS PERIOD...WITHIN THE BACKGROUND UPPER FLOW PATTERN WHICH SHOULD
   REMAIN GENERALLY STAGNANT AND RELATIVELY WEAK.  THOUGH SOME TORNADO
   POTENTIAL MAY ACCOMPANY ISAAC -- ESPECIALLY EARLY IN THE
   PERIOD...GREATER POTENTIAL WILL LIKELY BE HEAVY RAINFALL WITH THIS
   SYSTEM.  ELSEWHERE...A LOW-AMPLITUDE VORT MAX IS FORECAST TO SHIFT
   ENEWD OUT OF THE NRN INTERMOUNTAIN REGION AND ACROSS THE N CENTRAL
   U.S. DAYS 4-5 /WED AND THU 8-29 AND 8-30/...ALONG WITH AN
   ACCOMPANYING SURFACE FRONT.  THOUGH SOME THREAT FOR SEVERE STORMS
   WILL EXIST WITH THIS SYSTEM -- PARTICULARLY DAY 4 ACROSS THE ND/NRN
   MN VICINITY...THE THREAT DOES NOT APPEAR SUFFICIENT TO WARRANT
   INTRODUCTION OF AN EQUIVALENT 30% THREAT AREA ATTM.  OTHERWISE...NO
   OBVIOUS/ORGANIZED SEVERE THREATS ARE EVIDENT ATTM THROUGH THE
   PERIOD.
   
   ..GOSS.. 08/26/2012

   CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

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