|Day 4-8 Severe Weather Outlook Issued on Aug 27, 2012|
|Updated: Mon Aug 27 08:53:02 UTC 2012|
|D4||Thu, Aug 30, 2012 - Fri, Aug 31, 2012
||D7||Sun, Sep 02, 2012 - Mon, Sep 03, 2012
|D5||Fri, Aug 31, 2012 - Sat, Sep 01, 2012
||D8||Mon, Sep 03, 2012 - Tue, Sep 04, 2012
|D6||Sat, Sep 01, 2012 - Sun, Sep 02, 2012
||(All days are valid from 12 UTC - 12 UTC)
Note: A severe weather area depicted in the Day 4-8 period indicates a 30% or higher probability for severe thunderstorms within 25 miles of any point.
PREDICTABILITY TOO LOW is used to indicate severe storms may be possible based on some model scenarios. However, the location or occurrence of severe storms are in doubt due to: 1) large differences in the deterministic model solutions, 2) large spread in the ensemble guidance, and/or 3) minimal run-to-run continuity.
POTENTIAL TOO LOW means the threat for a regional area of organized severe storms appears highly unlikely during the entire period (e.g. less than a 30% probability for a regional severe storm area across the CONUS through the entire Day 4-8 period).
ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL
ACUS48 KWNS 270852
SPC AC 270852
DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0352 AM CDT MON AUG 27 2012
VALID 301200Z - 041200Z
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS -- THOUGH DISPLAYING E-W DISCREPANCY WITH
REGARDS TO THE TRACK -- DEPICT A NWD-MOVING TROPICAL SYSTEM ISAAC
ACROSS THE S CENTRAL U.S. DAY 4 AND 5 /THU 8-30 AND FRI
8-31/...WEAKENING WITH TIME AND THEN TURNING EWD INTO THE OH VALLEY
REGION THEREAFTER. SOME TORNADO THREAT -- LIKELY DIMINISHING EACH
DAY -- WOULD EXIST WITH THIS SYSTEM...BUT DUE TO LOCATIONAL AND
INTENSITY ISSUES WHICH CAST UNCERTAINTY ON THE DEGREE AND LOCATION
OF THE THREAT...WILL OPT NOT TO INCLUDE AN OUTLOOK AREA THIS
MEANWHILE...A FAIRLY FLAT/LOW-AMPLITUDE FLOW FIELD ALOFT WILL
PREVAIL ACROSS MOST OF THE U.S. THIS PERIOD -- WITH ANY SEVERE
THREAT LIKELY CONFINED TO THE N CENTRAL AND NERN U.S. WHERE SOME
PROGRESSIVE SHORT-WAVE TROUGHING MAY SUPPORT SOME SEVERE POTENTIAL.
HOWEVER...THREAT DOES NOT WARRANT AREAL INCLUSION ATTM.
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