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Day 4-8 Severe Weather Outlook Issued on Aug 27, 2012
Updated: Mon Aug 27 08:53:02 UTC 2012
Day 4-8 Severe Weather Outlook Graphics Issued on Aug 27, 2012
D4Thu, Aug 30, 2012 - Fri, Aug 31, 2012 D7Sun, Sep 02, 2012 - Mon, Sep 03, 2012
D5Fri, Aug 31, 2012 - Sat, Sep 01, 2012 D8Mon, Sep 03, 2012 - Tue, Sep 04, 2012
D6Sat, Sep 01, 2012 - Sun, Sep 02, 2012 (All days are valid from 12 UTC - 12 UTC)
Note: A severe weather area depicted in the Day 4-8 period indicates a 30% or higher probability for severe thunderstorms within 25 miles of any point.
PREDICTABILITY TOO LOW is used to indicate severe storms may be possible based on some model scenarios. However, the location or occurrence of severe storms are in doubt due to: 1) large differences in the deterministic model solutions, 2) large spread in the ensemble guidance, and/or 3) minimal run-to-run continuity.
POTENTIAL TOO LOW means the threat for a regional area of organized severe storms appears highly unlikely during the entire period (e.g. less than a 30% probability for a regional severe storm area across the CONUS through the entire Day 4-8 period).

 Forecast Discussion

   ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL
   ACUS48 KWNS 270852
   SPC AC 270852
   
   DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0352 AM CDT MON AUG 27 2012
   
   VALID 301200Z - 041200Z
   
   ...DISCUSSION...
   MEDIUM RANGE MODELS -- THOUGH DISPLAYING E-W DISCREPANCY WITH
   REGARDS TO THE TRACK -- DEPICT A NWD-MOVING TROPICAL SYSTEM ISAAC
   ACROSS THE S CENTRAL U.S. DAY 4 AND 5 /THU 8-30 AND FRI
   8-31/...WEAKENING WITH TIME AND THEN TURNING EWD INTO THE OH VALLEY
   REGION THEREAFTER.  SOME TORNADO THREAT -- LIKELY DIMINISHING EACH
   DAY -- WOULD EXIST WITH THIS SYSTEM...BUT DUE TO LOCATIONAL AND
   INTENSITY ISSUES WHICH CAST UNCERTAINTY ON THE DEGREE AND LOCATION
   OF THE THREAT...WILL OPT NOT TO INCLUDE AN OUTLOOK AREA THIS
   FORECAST.
   
   MEANWHILE...A FAIRLY FLAT/LOW-AMPLITUDE FLOW FIELD ALOFT WILL
   PREVAIL ACROSS MOST OF THE U.S. THIS PERIOD -- WITH ANY SEVERE
   THREAT LIKELY CONFINED TO THE N CENTRAL AND NERN U.S. WHERE SOME
   PROGRESSIVE SHORT-WAVE TROUGHING MAY SUPPORT SOME SEVERE POTENTIAL. 
   HOWEVER...THREAT DOES NOT WARRANT AREAL INCLUSION ATTM.
   
   ..GOSS.. 08/27/2012

   CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

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