|Day 4-8 Severe Weather Outlook Issued on Aug 28, 2012|
|Updated: Tue Aug 28 08:52:03 UTC 2012|
|D4||Fri, Aug 31, 2012 - Sat, Sep 01, 2012
||D7||Mon, Sep 03, 2012 - Tue, Sep 04, 2012
|D5||Sat, Sep 01, 2012 - Sun, Sep 02, 2012
||D8||Tue, Sep 04, 2012 - Wed, Sep 05, 2012
|D6||Sun, Sep 02, 2012 - Mon, Sep 03, 2012
||(All days are valid from 12 UTC - 12 UTC)
Note: A severe weather area depicted in the Day 4-8 period indicates a 30% or higher probability for severe thunderstorms within 25 miles of any point.
PREDICTABILITY TOO LOW is used to indicate severe storms may be possible based on some model scenarios. However, the location or occurrence of severe storms are in doubt due to: 1) large differences in the deterministic model solutions, 2) large spread in the ensemble guidance, and/or 3) minimal run-to-run continuity.
POTENTIAL TOO LOW means the threat for a regional area of organized severe storms appears highly unlikely during the entire period (e.g. less than a 30% probability for a regional severe storm area across the CONUS through the entire Day 4-8 period).
ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL
ACUS48 KWNS 280851
SPC AC 280851
DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0351 AM CDT TUE AUG 28 2012
VALID 311200Z - 051200Z
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS IN DECENT AGREEMENT THROUGH DAY 6 /SUN
9-2/...WITH CONTINUED WEAKENING/DISSIPATION OF TROPICAL SYSTEM ISAAC
IN THE ERN HALF OF THE CONUS...AND WEAKENING OF A WRN U.S. TROUGH AS
IT SHIFTS INLAND AND ENCOUNTERS THE PERSISTENT DOWNSTREAM RIDGING.
GIVEN THE WEAKENING OF ISAAC AND DEAMPLIFICATION OF THE LARGE-SCALE
PATTERN...THE OVERALL PATTERN DOES NOT ATTM APPEAR CONDUCIVE FOR A
SUBSTANTIAL/WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER EVENT.
SOME POTENTIAL IS EVIDENT ACROSS THE NRN INTERMOUNTAIN REGION DAY 4
/FRI 8-31/...AND SHIFTING INTO THE HIGH PLAINS DAY 5 /SAT 9-1/...AS
THE DEAMPLIFYING TROUGH CROSSES THE N CENTRAL CONUS...BUT ATTM IT
APPEARS THAT LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE -- AND THUS INSTABILITY -- MAY BE
INSUFFICIENT TO WARRANT INCLUSION OF A 30% EQUIVALENT RISK AREA.
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