Skip Navigation Links weather.gov 
NOAA logo-Select to go to the NOAA homepage NOAA's National Weather Service   Select to go to the NWS homepage
Storm Prediction Center
navigation bar left  
  navigation bar end cap


 
USA.gov is the U.S. Government's official Web portal to all Federal, state and local government Web resources and services.

Day 4-8 Severe Weather Outlook Issued on Aug 28, 2012
Updated: Tue Aug 28 08:52:03 UTC 2012
Day 4-8 Severe Weather Outlook Graphics Issued on Aug 28, 2012
D4Fri, Aug 31, 2012 - Sat, Sep 01, 2012 D7Mon, Sep 03, 2012 - Tue, Sep 04, 2012
D5Sat, Sep 01, 2012 - Sun, Sep 02, 2012 D8Tue, Sep 04, 2012 - Wed, Sep 05, 2012
D6Sun, Sep 02, 2012 - Mon, Sep 03, 2012 (All days are valid from 12 UTC - 12 UTC)
Note: A severe weather area depicted in the Day 4-8 period indicates a 30% or higher probability for severe thunderstorms within 25 miles of any point.
PREDICTABILITY TOO LOW is used to indicate severe storms may be possible based on some model scenarios. However, the location or occurrence of severe storms are in doubt due to: 1) large differences in the deterministic model solutions, 2) large spread in the ensemble guidance, and/or 3) minimal run-to-run continuity.
POTENTIAL TOO LOW means the threat for a regional area of organized severe storms appears highly unlikely during the entire period (e.g. less than a 30% probability for a regional severe storm area across the CONUS through the entire Day 4-8 period).

 Forecast Discussion

   ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL
   ACUS48 KWNS 280851
   SPC AC 280851
   
   DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0351 AM CDT TUE AUG 28 2012
   
   VALID 311200Z - 051200Z
   
   ...DISCUSSION...
   MEDIUM RANGE MODELS IN DECENT AGREEMENT THROUGH DAY 6 /SUN
   9-2/...WITH CONTINUED WEAKENING/DISSIPATION OF TROPICAL SYSTEM ISAAC
   IN THE ERN HALF OF THE CONUS...AND WEAKENING OF A WRN U.S. TROUGH AS
   IT SHIFTS INLAND AND ENCOUNTERS THE PERSISTENT DOWNSTREAM RIDGING.
   
   GIVEN THE WEAKENING OF ISAAC AND DEAMPLIFICATION OF THE LARGE-SCALE
   PATTERN...THE OVERALL PATTERN DOES NOT ATTM APPEAR CONDUCIVE FOR A
   SUBSTANTIAL/WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER EVENT.
   
   SOME POTENTIAL IS EVIDENT ACROSS THE NRN INTERMOUNTAIN REGION DAY 4
   /FRI 8-31/...AND SHIFTING INTO THE HIGH PLAINS DAY 5 /SAT 9-1/...AS
   THE DEAMPLIFYING TROUGH CROSSES THE N CENTRAL CONUS...BUT ATTM IT
   APPEARS THAT LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE -- AND THUS INSTABILITY -- MAY BE
   INSUFFICIENT TO WARRANT INCLUSION OF A 30% EQUIVALENT RISK AREA.
   
   ..GOSS.. 08/28/2012

   CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

Weather Topics:
Watches, Mesoscale Discussions, Outlooks, Fire Weather, All Products, Contact Us

NOAA / National Weather Service
National Centers for Environmental Prediction
Storm Prediction Center
120 David L. Boren Blvd.
Norman, OK 73072 U.S.A.
spc.feedback@noaa.gov
Page last modified:
Disclaimer
Information Quality
Help
Glossary
Privacy Policy
Freedom of Information Act (FOIA)
About Us
Career Opportunities