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Day 4-8 Severe Weather Outlook Issued on Aug 29, 2012
Updated: Wed Aug 29 07:24:03 UTC 2012
Day 4-8 Severe Weather Outlook Graphics Issued on Aug 29, 2012
D4Sat, Sep 01, 2012 - Sun, Sep 02, 2012 D7Tue, Sep 04, 2012 - Wed, Sep 05, 2012
D5Sun, Sep 02, 2012 - Mon, Sep 03, 2012 D8Wed, Sep 05, 2012 - Thu, Sep 06, 2012
D6Mon, Sep 03, 2012 - Tue, Sep 04, 2012 (All days are valid from 12 UTC - 12 UTC)
Note: A severe weather area depicted in the Day 4-8 period indicates a 30% or higher probability for severe thunderstorms within 25 miles of any point.
PREDICTABILITY TOO LOW is used to indicate severe storms may be possible based on some model scenarios. However, the location or occurrence of severe storms are in doubt due to: 1) large differences in the deterministic model solutions, 2) large spread in the ensemble guidance, and/or 3) minimal run-to-run continuity.
POTENTIAL TOO LOW means the threat for a regional area of organized severe storms appears highly unlikely during the entire period (e.g. less than a 30% probability for a regional severe storm area across the CONUS through the entire Day 4-8 period).

 Forecast Discussion

   ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL
   ACUS48 KWNS 290723
   SPC AC 290723
   
   DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0223 AM CDT WED AUG 29 2012
   
   VALID 011200Z - 061200Z
   
   ...DISCUSSION...
   ON SUN/D5...THE BASE OF AN UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE NRN
   PLAINS AND INTO THE UPPER MS VALLEY...WITH A WEAK SFC PRESSURE
   TROUGH ROUGHLY ACROSS THE ERN DAKOTAS AND WRN MN BY SUN EVENING. SLY
   WINDS ACROSS THE PLAINS AS WELL AS THE INFLUENCE OF THE REMNANT
   TROPICAL SYSTEM SHOULD HELP RAISE BOUNDARY LAYER DEWPOINTS INTO THE
   MID TO UPPER 60S F AHEAD OF THE TROUGH. ALTHOUGH SCATTERED STORMS
   ARE LIKELY...SHEAR PROFILES WILL NOT PARTICULARLY STRONG AND ONLY
   MARGINAL WIND AND HAIL ARE PROBABLE.
   
   THIS TROUGH WILL CONTINUE EWD ACROSS WI AND MI ON MON/D6...WITH
   SIMILAR POTENTIAL ALTHOUGH WITH A BIT MORE DEFINITION TO THE COLD
   FRONT BY THIS TIME SUGGESTING LINEAR STORM MODE. 
   
   THE REMNANTS OF ISAAC ARE FORECAST TO BECOME ABSORBED INTO THIS
   TROUGH LATER IN THE PERIOD...WITH THE MAIN FOCUS BEING HEAVY RAIN
   FROM THE OH/TN VALLEYS NEWD ACROSS THE APPALACHIANS FOR D7 AND D8.
   
   ..JEWELL.. 08/29/2012

   CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

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