|Day 4-8 Severe Weather Outlook Issued on Aug 29, 2012|
|Updated: Wed Aug 29 07:24:03 UTC 2012|
|D4||Sat, Sep 01, 2012 - Sun, Sep 02, 2012
||D7||Tue, Sep 04, 2012 - Wed, Sep 05, 2012
|D5||Sun, Sep 02, 2012 - Mon, Sep 03, 2012
||D8||Wed, Sep 05, 2012 - Thu, Sep 06, 2012
|D6||Mon, Sep 03, 2012 - Tue, Sep 04, 2012
||(All days are valid from 12 UTC - 12 UTC)
Note: A severe weather area depicted in the Day 4-8 period indicates a 30% or higher probability for severe thunderstorms within 25 miles of any point.
PREDICTABILITY TOO LOW is used to indicate severe storms may be possible based on some model scenarios. However, the location or occurrence of severe storms are in doubt due to: 1) large differences in the deterministic model solutions, 2) large spread in the ensemble guidance, and/or 3) minimal run-to-run continuity.
POTENTIAL TOO LOW means the threat for a regional area of organized severe storms appears highly unlikely during the entire period (e.g. less than a 30% probability for a regional severe storm area across the CONUS through the entire Day 4-8 period).
ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL
ACUS48 KWNS 290723
SPC AC 290723
DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0223 AM CDT WED AUG 29 2012
VALID 011200Z - 061200Z
ON SUN/D5...THE BASE OF AN UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE NRN
PLAINS AND INTO THE UPPER MS VALLEY...WITH A WEAK SFC PRESSURE
TROUGH ROUGHLY ACROSS THE ERN DAKOTAS AND WRN MN BY SUN EVENING. SLY
WINDS ACROSS THE PLAINS AS WELL AS THE INFLUENCE OF THE REMNANT
TROPICAL SYSTEM SHOULD HELP RAISE BOUNDARY LAYER DEWPOINTS INTO THE
MID TO UPPER 60S F AHEAD OF THE TROUGH. ALTHOUGH SCATTERED STORMS
ARE LIKELY...SHEAR PROFILES WILL NOT PARTICULARLY STRONG AND ONLY
MARGINAL WIND AND HAIL ARE PROBABLE.
THIS TROUGH WILL CONTINUE EWD ACROSS WI AND MI ON MON/D6...WITH
SIMILAR POTENTIAL ALTHOUGH WITH A BIT MORE DEFINITION TO THE COLD
FRONT BY THIS TIME SUGGESTING LINEAR STORM MODE.
THE REMNANTS OF ISAAC ARE FORECAST TO BECOME ABSORBED INTO THIS
TROUGH LATER IN THE PERIOD...WITH THE MAIN FOCUS BEING HEAVY RAIN
FROM THE OH/TN VALLEYS NEWD ACROSS THE APPALACHIANS FOR D7 AND D8.
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