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Day 4-8 Severe Weather Outlook Issued on Aug 30, 2012
Updated: Thu Aug 30 08:49:03 UTC 2012
Day 4-8 Severe Weather Outlook Graphics Issued on Aug 30, 2012
D4Sun, Sep 02, 2012 - Mon, Sep 03, 2012 D7Wed, Sep 05, 2012 - Thu, Sep 06, 2012
D5Mon, Sep 03, 2012 - Tue, Sep 04, 2012 D8Thu, Sep 06, 2012 - Fri, Sep 07, 2012
D6Tue, Sep 04, 2012 - Wed, Sep 05, 2012 (All days are valid from 12 UTC - 12 UTC)
Note: A severe weather area depicted in the Day 4-8 period indicates a 30% or higher probability for severe thunderstorms within 25 miles of any point.
PREDICTABILITY TOO LOW is used to indicate severe storms may be possible based on some model scenarios. However, the location or occurrence of severe storms are in doubt due to: 1) large differences in the deterministic model solutions, 2) large spread in the ensemble guidance, and/or 3) minimal run-to-run continuity.
POTENTIAL TOO LOW means the threat for a regional area of organized severe storms appears highly unlikely during the entire period (e.g. less than a 30% probability for a regional severe storm area across the CONUS through the entire Day 4-8 period).

 Forecast Discussion

   ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL
   ACUS48 KWNS 300848
   SPC AC 300848
   
   DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0348 AM CDT THU AUG 30 2012
   
   VALID 021200Z - 071200Z
   
   ...DISCUSSION...
   MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON SUN/D4 IN MOVING THE BASE OF AN
   UPPER TROUGH EWD ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS INTO THE UPPER MS
   VALLEY...WITH A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH ACROSS THE ERN DAKOTAS/WRN MN BY
   00Z. DEWPOINTS INTO THE LOW TO MID 60S F ARE LIKELY ACROSS THE WARM
   SECTOR...WHICH WILL CREATE SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY FOR A FEW STRONG
   TO SEVERE STORMS FROM MN INTO NRN WI GIVEN RELATIVELY COOL AIR ALOFT
   AND STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND FORCING. WIND AND HAIL WILL BE MOST
   LIKELY...BUT EXPECTED COVERAGE DOES NOT APPEAR TO WARRANT A 30%
   AREA.
   
   PREDICTABILITY DECREASES SUBSTANTIALLY FROM D5 ONWARD. THE ECMWF
   KEEPS THE TROUGH MOSTLY ACROSS CANADA WHILE THE GFS BRINGS IT SEWD
   ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND OH VALLEY. SOME SEVERE THREAT MAY EXIST
   ACROSS IL ON D5...BUT PREDICTABILITY IS CURRENTLY TOO LOW.
   
   ..JEWELL.. 08/30/2012

   CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

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