|Day 4-8 Severe Weather Outlook Issued on Aug 31, 2012|
|Updated: Fri Aug 31 08:55:03 UTC 2012|
|D4||Mon, Sep 03, 2012 - Tue, Sep 04, 2012
||D7||Thu, Sep 06, 2012 - Fri, Sep 07, 2012
|D5||Tue, Sep 04, 2012 - Wed, Sep 05, 2012
||D8||Fri, Sep 07, 2012 - Sat, Sep 08, 2012
|D6||Wed, Sep 05, 2012 - Thu, Sep 06, 2012
||(All days are valid from 12 UTC - 12 UTC)
Note: A severe weather area depicted in the Day 4-8 period indicates a 30% or higher probability for severe thunderstorms within 25 miles of any point.
PREDICTABILITY TOO LOW is used to indicate severe storms may be possible based on some model scenarios. However, the location or occurrence of severe storms are in doubt due to: 1) large differences in the deterministic model solutions, 2) large spread in the ensemble guidance, and/or 3) minimal run-to-run continuity.
POTENTIAL TOO LOW means the threat for a regional area of organized severe storms appears highly unlikely during the entire period (e.g. less than a 30% probability for a regional severe storm area across the CONUS through the entire Day 4-8 period).
ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL
ACUS48 KWNS 310854
SPC AC 310854
DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0354 AM CDT FRI AUG 31 2012
VALID 031200Z - 081200Z
MINOR DIFFERENCES BETWEEN MEDIUM-RANGE MODEL SOLUTIONS ARE EVIDENT
AT THE START OF THE PERIOD -- MAINLY WITH EVOLUTION OF UPPER
TROUGHING OVER WRN AND CENTRAL CANADA...AND THE ASSOCIATED EFFECT ON
CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL OVER THE N CENTRAL AND EVENTUALLY THE NERN
CONUS. THE GFS TENDS TO KEEP TWO SEPARATE UPPER LOW CENTERS...WHICH
PROGRESS STEADILY EWD. MEANWHILE...THE ECMWF WEAKENS THE ERN-MOST
LOW...SOMEWHAT MERGING THE TWO INTO ONE STRONGER LOW.
IN EITHER CASE HOWEVER...WHILE SOME SEVERE THREAT COULD BE POSSIBLE
FROM THE CENTRAL U.S. EWD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES/OH VALLEY REGION
THROUGH DAYS 6-7 /SEPT 5-6/...WIDESPREAD/SUBSTANTIAL SEVERE
POTENTIAL APPEARS UNLIKELY.
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