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| Day 4-8 Severe Weather Outlook Issued on Aug 31, 2012 |
| Updated: Fri Aug 31 08:55:03 UTC 2012 |
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| D4 | Mon, Sep 03, 2012 - Tue, Sep 04, 2012 |
D7 | Thu, Sep 06, 2012 - Fri, Sep 07, 2012 |
| D5 | Tue, Sep 04, 2012 - Wed, Sep 05, 2012 |
D8 | Fri, Sep 07, 2012 - Sat, Sep 08, 2012 |
| D6 | Wed, Sep 05, 2012 - Thu, Sep 06, 2012 |
(All days are valid from 12 UTC - 12 UTC) |
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Note: A severe weather area depicted in the Day 4-8 period indicates a 30% or higher probability for severe thunderstorms within 25 miles of any point.
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PREDICTABILITY TOO LOW is used to indicate severe storms may be possible based on some model scenarios. However, the location or occurrence of severe storms are in doubt due to: 1) large differences in the deterministic model solutions, 2) large spread in the ensemble guidance, and/or 3) minimal run-to-run continuity.
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POTENTIAL TOO LOW means the threat for a regional area of organized severe storms appears highly unlikely during the entire period (e.g. less than a 30% probability for a regional severe storm area across the CONUS through the entire Day 4-8 period).
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ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL
ACUS48 KWNS 310854
SPC AC 310854
DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0354 AM CDT FRI AUG 31 2012
VALID 031200Z - 081200Z
...DISCUSSION...
MINOR DIFFERENCES BETWEEN MEDIUM-RANGE MODEL SOLUTIONS ARE EVIDENT
AT THE START OF THE PERIOD -- MAINLY WITH EVOLUTION OF UPPER
TROUGHING OVER WRN AND CENTRAL CANADA...AND THE ASSOCIATED EFFECT ON
CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL OVER THE N CENTRAL AND EVENTUALLY THE NERN
CONUS. THE GFS TENDS TO KEEP TWO SEPARATE UPPER LOW CENTERS...WHICH
PROGRESS STEADILY EWD. MEANWHILE...THE ECMWF WEAKENS THE ERN-MOST
LOW...SOMEWHAT MERGING THE TWO INTO ONE STRONGER LOW.
IN EITHER CASE HOWEVER...WHILE SOME SEVERE THREAT COULD BE POSSIBLE
FROM THE CENTRAL U.S. EWD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES/OH VALLEY REGION
THROUGH DAYS 6-7 /SEPT 5-6/...WIDESPREAD/SUBSTANTIAL SEVERE
POTENTIAL APPEARS UNLIKELY.
..GOSS.. 08/31/2012
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
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