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Day 4-8 Severe Weather Outlook Issued on Sep 1, 2012
Updated: Sat Sep 1 09:10:04 UTC 2012
Day 4-8 Severe Weather Outlook Graphics Issued on Sep 1, 2012
D4Tue, Sep 04, 2012 - Wed, Sep 05, 2012 D7Fri, Sep 07, 2012 - Sat, Sep 08, 2012
D5Wed, Sep 05, 2012 - Thu, Sep 06, 2012 D8Sat, Sep 08, 2012 - Sun, Sep 09, 2012
D6Thu, Sep 06, 2012 - Fri, Sep 07, 2012 (All days are valid from 12 UTC - 12 UTC)
Note: A severe weather area depicted in the Day 4-8 period indicates a 30% or higher probability for severe thunderstorms within 25 miles of any point.
PREDICTABILITY TOO LOW is used to indicate severe storms may be possible based on some model scenarios. However, the location or occurrence of severe storms are in doubt due to: 1) large differences in the deterministic model solutions, 2) large spread in the ensemble guidance, and/or 3) minimal run-to-run continuity.
POTENTIAL TOO LOW means the threat for a regional area of organized severe storms appears highly unlikely during the entire period (e.g. less than a 30% probability for a regional severe storm area across the CONUS through the entire Day 4-8 period).

 Forecast Discussion

   ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL
   ACUS48 KWNS 010908
   SPC AC 010908
   
   DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0408 AM CDT SAT SEP 01 2012
   
   VALID 041200Z - 091200Z
   
   ...DISCUSSION...
   MEDIUM-RANGE MODEL AGREEMENT APPEARS TO EXIST OUT THROUGH ABOUT DAY
   6 /THU SEP 6/...WITH OVERALL DEPICTION OF THE LARGER-SCALE FEATURES.
    DURING THIS FIRST HALF OF THE PERIOD...A SLOW-MOVING UPPER TROUGH
   WILL SHIFT ACROSS THE N CENTRAL AND EVENTUALLY THE NERN CONUS.  AN
   ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL ALSO SHIFT EWD...WITH SOME SEVERE
   POTENTIAL EVIDENT FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS NEWD ALONG THE FRONT --
   NEARER THE BELT OF STRONGER FLOW ALOFT.  ATTM HOWEVER...THREAT DOES
   NOT APPEAR PARTICULARLY SIGNIFICANT/WIDESPREAD...AND THUS WILL NOT
   HIGHLIGHT ANY SPECIFIC AREAS WITH 30% EQUIVALENT PROBABILITY LINE
   THIS FORECAST.
   
   ..GOSS.. 09/01/2012

   CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

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