|Day 4-8 Severe Weather Outlook Issued on Sep 1, 2012|
|Updated: Sat Sep 1 09:10:04 UTC 2012|
|D4||Tue, Sep 04, 2012 - Wed, Sep 05, 2012
||D7||Fri, Sep 07, 2012 - Sat, Sep 08, 2012
|D5||Wed, Sep 05, 2012 - Thu, Sep 06, 2012
||D8||Sat, Sep 08, 2012 - Sun, Sep 09, 2012
|D6||Thu, Sep 06, 2012 - Fri, Sep 07, 2012
||(All days are valid from 12 UTC - 12 UTC)
Note: A severe weather area depicted in the Day 4-8 period indicates a 30% or higher probability for severe thunderstorms within 25 miles of any point.
PREDICTABILITY TOO LOW is used to indicate severe storms may be possible based on some model scenarios. However, the location or occurrence of severe storms are in doubt due to: 1) large differences in the deterministic model solutions, 2) large spread in the ensemble guidance, and/or 3) minimal run-to-run continuity.
POTENTIAL TOO LOW means the threat for a regional area of organized severe storms appears highly unlikely during the entire period (e.g. less than a 30% probability for a regional severe storm area across the CONUS through the entire Day 4-8 period).
ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL
ACUS48 KWNS 010908
SPC AC 010908
DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0408 AM CDT SAT SEP 01 2012
VALID 041200Z - 091200Z
MEDIUM-RANGE MODEL AGREEMENT APPEARS TO EXIST OUT THROUGH ABOUT DAY
6 /THU SEP 6/...WITH OVERALL DEPICTION OF THE LARGER-SCALE FEATURES.
DURING THIS FIRST HALF OF THE PERIOD...A SLOW-MOVING UPPER TROUGH
WILL SHIFT ACROSS THE N CENTRAL AND EVENTUALLY THE NERN CONUS. AN
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL ALSO SHIFT EWD...WITH SOME SEVERE
POTENTIAL EVIDENT FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS NEWD ALONG THE FRONT --
NEARER THE BELT OF STRONGER FLOW ALOFT. ATTM HOWEVER...THREAT DOES
NOT APPEAR PARTICULARLY SIGNIFICANT/WIDESPREAD...AND THUS WILL NOT
HIGHLIGHT ANY SPECIFIC AREAS WITH 30% EQUIVALENT PROBABILITY LINE
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT