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Day 4-8 Severe Weather Outlook Issued on Sep 2, 2012
Updated: Sun Sep 2 08:48:03 UTC 2012
Day 4-8 Severe Weather Outlook Graphics Issued on Sep 2, 2012
D4Wed, Sep 05, 2012 - Thu, Sep 06, 2012 D7Sat, Sep 08, 2012 - Sun, Sep 09, 2012
D5Thu, Sep 06, 2012 - Fri, Sep 07, 2012 D8Sun, Sep 09, 2012 - Mon, Sep 10, 2012
D6Fri, Sep 07, 2012 - Sat, Sep 08, 2012 (All days are valid from 12 UTC - 12 UTC)
Note: A severe weather area depicted in the Day 4-8 period indicates a 30% or higher probability for severe thunderstorms within 25 miles of any point.
PREDICTABILITY TOO LOW is used to indicate severe storms may be possible based on some model scenarios. However, the location or occurrence of severe storms are in doubt due to: 1) large differences in the deterministic model solutions, 2) large spread in the ensemble guidance, and/or 3) minimal run-to-run continuity.
POTENTIAL TOO LOW means the threat for a regional area of organized severe storms appears highly unlikely during the entire period (e.g. less than a 30% probability for a regional severe storm area across the CONUS through the entire Day 4-8 period).

 Forecast Discussion

   ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL
   ACUS48 KWNS 020847
   SPC AC 020847
   
   DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0347 AM CDT SUN SEP 02 2012
   
   VALID 051200Z - 101200Z
   
   ...DISCUSSION...
   MEDIUM-RANGE MODELS IN DECENT LARGE-SCALE AGREEMENT THROUGH MUCH OF
   THIS FORECAST PERIOD...THOUGH SUBTLE DIFFERENCES ALOFT -- MAINLY
   PERTAINING TO A DIGGING SHORT-WAVE TROUGH ON THE REAR OF THE
   LARGE/SLOW-MOVING CANADIAN VORTEX.  BOTH MODELS DEPICT THIS DIGGING
   FEATURE -- PROGGED TO MOVE INTO THE NRN INTERMOUNTAIN REGION DAY 5
   /THU 9-6/.  HOWEVER...THE GFS MAINTAINS A MORE WRN TRACK WITH THIS
   FEATURE -- WHICH RESULTS IN SUBSTANTIAL SURFACE PATTERN DIFFERENCES
   OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS DAY 6 /FRI. 9-7/ -- AND THEN ACROSS THE OH
   VALLEY REGION DAY 7 /SAT. 9-8/.  
   
   THUS...WITH ANY SEVERE POTENTIAL DAY 5 /WED. 9-5/ INSUFFICIENT TO
   WARRANT 30% AREAL OUTLINE AND THREAT BEYOND THIS PERIOD UNCERTAIN
   DUE TO MODEL DIFFERENCES...WILL REFRAIN FROM ISSUANCE OF ANY AREAL
   HIGHLIGHTS THROUGH THIS FORECAST PERIOD.
   
   ..GOSS.. 09/02/2012

   CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

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