|Day 4-8 Severe Weather Outlook Issued on Sep 2, 2012|
|Updated: Sun Sep 2 08:48:03 UTC 2012|
|D4||Wed, Sep 05, 2012 - Thu, Sep 06, 2012
||D7||Sat, Sep 08, 2012 - Sun, Sep 09, 2012
|D5||Thu, Sep 06, 2012 - Fri, Sep 07, 2012
||D8||Sun, Sep 09, 2012 - Mon, Sep 10, 2012
|D6||Fri, Sep 07, 2012 - Sat, Sep 08, 2012
||(All days are valid from 12 UTC - 12 UTC)
Note: A severe weather area depicted in the Day 4-8 period indicates a 30% or higher probability for severe thunderstorms within 25 miles of any point.
PREDICTABILITY TOO LOW is used to indicate severe storms may be possible based on some model scenarios. However, the location or occurrence of severe storms are in doubt due to: 1) large differences in the deterministic model solutions, 2) large spread in the ensemble guidance, and/or 3) minimal run-to-run continuity.
POTENTIAL TOO LOW means the threat for a regional area of organized severe storms appears highly unlikely during the entire period (e.g. less than a 30% probability for a regional severe storm area across the CONUS through the entire Day 4-8 period).
ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL
ACUS48 KWNS 020847
SPC AC 020847
DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0347 AM CDT SUN SEP 02 2012
VALID 051200Z - 101200Z
MEDIUM-RANGE MODELS IN DECENT LARGE-SCALE AGREEMENT THROUGH MUCH OF
THIS FORECAST PERIOD...THOUGH SUBTLE DIFFERENCES ALOFT -- MAINLY
PERTAINING TO A DIGGING SHORT-WAVE TROUGH ON THE REAR OF THE
LARGE/SLOW-MOVING CANADIAN VORTEX. BOTH MODELS DEPICT THIS DIGGING
FEATURE -- PROGGED TO MOVE INTO THE NRN INTERMOUNTAIN REGION DAY 5
/THU 9-6/. HOWEVER...THE GFS MAINTAINS A MORE WRN TRACK WITH THIS
FEATURE -- WHICH RESULTS IN SUBSTANTIAL SURFACE PATTERN DIFFERENCES
OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS DAY 6 /FRI. 9-7/ -- AND THEN ACROSS THE OH
VALLEY REGION DAY 7 /SAT. 9-8/.
THUS...WITH ANY SEVERE POTENTIAL DAY 5 /WED. 9-5/ INSUFFICIENT TO
WARRANT 30% AREAL OUTLINE AND THREAT BEYOND THIS PERIOD UNCERTAIN
DUE TO MODEL DIFFERENCES...WILL REFRAIN FROM ISSUANCE OF ANY AREAL
HIGHLIGHTS THROUGH THIS FORECAST PERIOD.
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT