|
| Day 4-8 Severe Weather Outlook Issued on Sep 2, 2012 |
| Updated: Sun Sep 2 08:48:03 UTC 2012 |
 |
| D4 | Wed, Sep 05, 2012 - Thu, Sep 06, 2012 |
D7 | Sat, Sep 08, 2012 - Sun, Sep 09, 2012 |
| D5 | Thu, Sep 06, 2012 - Fri, Sep 07, 2012 |
D8 | Sun, Sep 09, 2012 - Mon, Sep 10, 2012 |
| D6 | Fri, Sep 07, 2012 - Sat, Sep 08, 2012 |
(All days are valid from 12 UTC - 12 UTC) |
|
Note: A severe weather area depicted in the Day 4-8 period indicates a 30% or higher probability for severe thunderstorms within 25 miles of any point.
|
|
PREDICTABILITY TOO LOW is used to indicate severe storms may be possible based on some model scenarios. However, the location or occurrence of severe storms are in doubt due to: 1) large differences in the deterministic model solutions, 2) large spread in the ensemble guidance, and/or 3) minimal run-to-run continuity.
|
|
POTENTIAL TOO LOW means the threat for a regional area of organized severe storms appears highly unlikely during the entire period (e.g. less than a 30% probability for a regional severe storm area across the CONUS through the entire Day 4-8 period).
|
ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL
ACUS48 KWNS 020847
SPC AC 020847
DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0347 AM CDT SUN SEP 02 2012
VALID 051200Z - 101200Z
...DISCUSSION...
MEDIUM-RANGE MODELS IN DECENT LARGE-SCALE AGREEMENT THROUGH MUCH OF
THIS FORECAST PERIOD...THOUGH SUBTLE DIFFERENCES ALOFT -- MAINLY
PERTAINING TO A DIGGING SHORT-WAVE TROUGH ON THE REAR OF THE
LARGE/SLOW-MOVING CANADIAN VORTEX. BOTH MODELS DEPICT THIS DIGGING
FEATURE -- PROGGED TO MOVE INTO THE NRN INTERMOUNTAIN REGION DAY 5
/THU 9-6/. HOWEVER...THE GFS MAINTAINS A MORE WRN TRACK WITH THIS
FEATURE -- WHICH RESULTS IN SUBSTANTIAL SURFACE PATTERN DIFFERENCES
OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS DAY 6 /FRI. 9-7/ -- AND THEN ACROSS THE OH
VALLEY REGION DAY 7 /SAT. 9-8/.
THUS...WITH ANY SEVERE POTENTIAL DAY 5 /WED. 9-5/ INSUFFICIENT TO
WARRANT 30% AREAL OUTLINE AND THREAT BEYOND THIS PERIOD UNCERTAIN
DUE TO MODEL DIFFERENCES...WILL REFRAIN FROM ISSUANCE OF ANY AREAL
HIGHLIGHTS THROUGH THIS FORECAST PERIOD.
..GOSS.. 09/02/2012
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
|
|
weather.gov 
@NWSSPC
