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Day 4-8 Severe Weather Outlook Issued on Sep 3, 2012
Updated: Mon Sep 3 08:54:03 UTC 2012
Day 4-8 Severe Weather Outlook Graphics Issued on Sep 3, 2012
D4Thu, Sep 06, 2012 - Fri, Sep 07, 2012 D7Sun, Sep 09, 2012 - Mon, Sep 10, 2012
D5Fri, Sep 07, 2012 - Sat, Sep 08, 2012 D8Mon, Sep 10, 2012 - Tue, Sep 11, 2012
D6Sat, Sep 08, 2012 - Sun, Sep 09, 2012 (All days are valid from 12 UTC - 12 UTC)
Note: A severe weather area depicted in the Day 4-8 period indicates a 30% or higher probability for severe thunderstorms within 25 miles of any point.
PREDICTABILITY TOO LOW is used to indicate severe storms may be possible based on some model scenarios. However, the location or occurrence of severe storms are in doubt due to: 1) large differences in the deterministic model solutions, 2) large spread in the ensemble guidance, and/or 3) minimal run-to-run continuity.
POTENTIAL TOO LOW means the threat for a regional area of organized severe storms appears highly unlikely during the entire period (e.g. less than a 30% probability for a regional severe storm area across the CONUS through the entire Day 4-8 period).

 Forecast Discussion

   ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL
   ACUS48 KWNS 030853
   SPC AC 030853
   
   DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0353 AM CDT MON SEP 03 2012
   
   VALID 061200Z - 111200Z
   
   ...DISCUSSION...
   SUBSTANTIAL DIVERGENCE IN MEDIUM-RANGE MODEL SOLUTIONS BEGINS DAY 5
   /FRI. 9-1/...AS THE PERSISTENT CANADIAN VORTEX SHIFTS EWD TOWARD ERN
   CANADA AND A SHORTER-WAVELENGTH FEATURE DIGS SEWD IN NWLY CYCLONIC
   FLOW ON THE WRN FRINGE OF THE LARGER-SCALE LOW.
   
   THE GFS -- LIKE 24 HOURS AGO -- REMAINS SLOWER...WEAKER...AND
   FARTHER W WITH THIS FEATURE...RESULTING IN FAIRLY SUBSTANTIAL
   DIFFERENCES IN SURFACE PATTERN EVOLUTION AS WELL.  
   
   PRIOR TO THE DIVERGENCE IN SOLUTIONS...SEVERE POTENTIAL IS APPARENT
   DAY 4 /THU. 9-6/ ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS REGION...AS THE DIGGING
   SHORT-WAVE FEATURE HEADS SEWD ACROSS THE NRN INTERMOUNTAIN REGION --
   DRIVING SURFACE PRESSURE FALLS OVER THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS. 
   RESULTING LOW-LEVEL SELYS BENEATH 30 TO 40 KT WLYS ATOP THE WARM
   SECTOR WILL YIELD SHEAR SUPPORTIVE OF ORGANIZED STORMS...AND
   ASSOCIATED WIND/HAIL THREATS.  HOWEVER...THREAT DOES NOT APPEAR
   QUITE SUBSTANTIAL ENOUGH ATTM TO CONFIDENTLY INTRODUCE A 30%
   EQUIVALENT THREAT AREA.  
   
   BEYOND DAY 4...PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED SOLUTION DEVIATIONS PRECLUDE
   CONSIDERATION OF THREAT AREAS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD.
   
   ..GOSS.. 09/03/2012

   CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

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