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| Day 4-8 Severe Weather Outlook Issued on Dec 3, 2012 |
| Updated: Mon Dec 3 09:43:03 UTC 2012 |
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| D4 | Thu, Dec 06, 2012 - Fri, Dec 07, 2012 |
D7 | Sun, Dec 09, 2012 - Mon, Dec 10, 2012 |
| D5 | Fri, Dec 07, 2012 - Sat, Dec 08, 2012 |
D8 | Mon, Dec 10, 2012 - Tue, Dec 11, 2012 |
| D6 | Sat, Dec 08, 2012 - Sun, Dec 09, 2012 |
(All days are valid from 12 UTC - 12 UTC the following day) |
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Note: A severe weather area depicted in the Day 4-8 period indicates a 30% or higher probability for severe thunderstorms within 25 miles of any point.
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PREDICTABILITY TOO LOW is used to indicate severe storms may be possible based on some model scenarios. However, the location or occurrence of severe storms are in doubt due to: 1) large differences in the deterministic model solutions, 2) large spread in the ensemble guidance, and/or 3) minimal run-to-run continuity.
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POTENTIAL TOO LOW means the threat for a regional area of organized severe storms appears highly unlikely during the entire period (e.g. less than a 30% probability for a regional severe storm area across the CONUS through the entire Day 4-8 period).
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ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL
ACUS48 KWNS 030941
SPC AC 030941
DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0341 AM CST MON DEC 03 2012
VALID 061200Z - 111200Z
...DISCUSSION...
MEDIUM-RANGE MODELS IN DECENT AGREEMENT THROUGH DAY 5 /FRI.
12-7/...AFTER WHICH MAJOR DIFFERENCES BEGIN TO BECOME MANIFEST --
BOTH BETWEEN THE MODELS...AND BETWEEN THE CURRENT RUNS OF THE MODELS
AND THE RUNS OF 24 HOURS PRIOR. GIVEN THESE LARGE DIFFERENCES...A
CONCLUSION THAT THE UPCOMING WEATHER PATTERN IS A LOW-PREDICTABILITY
SCENARIO APPEARS WARRANTED.
WITH LITTLE ORGANIZED CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL EVIDENT EARLY IN THE
PERIOD AND MAJOR PREDICTABILITY ISSUES ARISING THEREAFTER...NO AREAS
WILL BE ISSUED THIS FORECAST.
..GOSS.. 12/03/2012
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
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