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| Day 4-8 Severe Weather Outlook Issued on Dec 16, 2012 |
| Updated: Sun Dec 16 17:50:03 UTC 2012 |
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| D4 | Wed, Dec 19, 2012 - Thu, Dec 20, 2012 |
D7 | Sat, Dec 22, 2012 - Sun, Dec 23, 2012 |
| D5 | Thu, Dec 20, 2012 - Fri, Dec 21, 2012 |
D8 | Sun, Dec 23, 2012 - Mon, Dec 24, 2012 |
| D6 | Fri, Dec 21, 2012 - Sat, Dec 22, 2012 |
(All days are valid from 12 UTC - 12 UTC the following day) |
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Note: A severe weather area depicted in the Day 4-8 period indicates a 30% or higher probability for severe thunderstorms within 25 miles of any point.
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PREDICTABILITY TOO LOW is used to indicate severe storms may be possible based on some model scenarios. However, the location or occurrence of severe storms are in doubt due to: 1) large differences in the deterministic model solutions, 2) large spread in the ensemble guidance, and/or 3) minimal run-to-run continuity.
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POTENTIAL TOO LOW means the threat for a regional area of organized severe storms appears highly unlikely during the entire period (e.g. less than a 30% probability for a regional severe storm area across the CONUS through the entire Day 4-8 period).
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ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL
ACUS48 KWNS 161749
SPC AC 161749
DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK CORR 1
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1149 AM CST SUN DEC 16 2012
VALID 191200Z - 241200Z
CORRECTED FOR DAYS OF WEEK
...DISCUSSION...
DAY 4-5...MODELS HAVE CONVERGED ON AMPLITUDE AND TIMING OF A STRONG
PROGRESSIVE SHORTWAVE TROUGH THAT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE SRN PLAINS
DAY 4 /WEDNESDAY/...LOWER MS VALLEY WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND INTO THE OH
VALLEY AND SERN STATES DAY 5 /THURSDAY/. THIS SYSTEM WILL INDUCE A
STRONG SURFACE LOW THAT WILL MOVE FROM KS/OK WEDNESDAY INTO THE OH
VALLEY THURSDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP EWD THROUGH THE LOWER MS
VALLEY AND SERN STATES IN ASSOCIATION WITH THIS FEATURE. PARTIALLY
MODIFIED GULF AIR WILL ADVECT NWD ALONG A STRONG LLJ RESULTING IN
DESTABILIZATION. HOWEVER...INSTABILITY WILL LIKELY REMAIN MARGINAL
DUE TO EXPECTED WEAK LAPSE RATES. DESPITE THE LIMITED
INSTABILITY...EXPECT A LINE OF FORCED CONVECTION TO DEVELOP
WEDNESDAY NIGHT OVER THE LOWER MS VALLEY AND CONTINUE EWD THROUGH
THE TN VALLEY AND SERN STATES DAY 5 /THURSDAY/. GIVEN THE STRENGTH
OF THE NEAR-SFC AND DEEP-LAYER FLOW...DAMAGING WIND MAY BE A THREAT
AS THE ACTIVITY DEVELOPS EWD.
..DIAL.. 12/16/2012
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
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