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Day 4-8 Severe Weather Outlook Issued on Jan 22, 2013
Updated: Tue Jan 22 08:53:03 UTC 2013
Day 4-8 Severe Weather Outlook Graphics Issued on Jan 22, 2013
D4Fri, Jan 25, 2013 - Sat, Jan 26, 2013 D7Mon, Jan 28, 2013 - Tue, Jan 29, 2013
D5Sat, Jan 26, 2013 - Sun, Jan 27, 2013 D8Tue, Jan 29, 2013 - Wed, Jan 30, 2013
D6Sun, Jan 27, 2013 - Mon, Jan 28, 2013 (All days are valid from 12 UTC - 12 UTC the following day)
Note: A severe weather area depicted in the Day 4-8 period indicates a 30% or higher probability for severe thunderstorms within 25 miles of any point.
PREDICTABILITY TOO LOW is used to indicate severe storms may be possible based on some model scenarios. However, the location or occurrence of severe storms are in doubt due to: 1) large differences in the deterministic model solutions, 2) large spread in the ensemble guidance, and/or 3) minimal run-to-run continuity.
POTENTIAL TOO LOW means the threat for a regional area of organized severe storms appears highly unlikely during the entire period (e.g. less than a 30% probability for a regional severe storm area across the CONUS through the entire Day 4-8 period).

 Forecast Discussion

   ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL
   ACUS48 KWNS 220852
   SPC AC 220852
   
   DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0252 AM CST TUE JAN 22 2013
   
   VALID 251200Z - 301200Z
   
   ...DISCUSSION...
   THE ECMWF AND GFS MODELS ARE IN MUCH BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE
   EVOLUTION OF THE PATTERN OVER THE NEXT 8 DAYS...WITH THE POTENTIAL
   FOR THUNDERSTORMS...POSSIBLY SEVERE...BEGINNING MON-TUE NEXT WEEK.
   
   A POWERFUL SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO MOVE SEWD ACROSS THE
   UPPER AND MIDDLE MS VALLEY ON FRI/D4...AND WILL AMPLIFY AS IT
   APPROACHES THE E COAST ON SAT/D5. BEHIND THIS TROUGH...A LARGE AREA
   OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL MAINTAIN COOL AND DRY WEATHER OVER THE CNTRL
   AND ERN STATES.
   
   BY SUN/D6 INTO MON/D7...THERE IS CONSISTENCY IN DROPPING A STRONG
   SHORTWAVE TROUGH OR UPPER LOW SWD ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN...THEN
   MOVING IT INTO THE PLAINS OR MS VALLEY ON TUE/D8. THERE APPEARS TO
   BE SUFFICIENT TIME WITH FAVORABLE LOW LEVEL TRAJECTORIES TO BRING
   SUBSTANTIAL MOISTURE NWD ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO AND INTO ERN TX
   AND ACROSS THE GULF COAST STATES. THE LIKELY JUXTAPOSITION OF STRONG
   FLOW ALOFT OVER A SUFFICIENTLY BROAD MOIST SECTOR SUGGEST THAT
   SEVERE WEATHER WOULD BE LIKELY IF THIS SCENARIO OCCURS.
   HOWEVER...WILL WAIT FOR MORE RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY FROM THE VARIOUS
   MODELS BEFORE INTRODUCING ANY POTENTIAL SEVERE AREAS THIS FAR IN
   ADVANCE.
   
   ..JEWELL.. 01/22/2013

   CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

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