|Day 4-8 Severe Weather Outlook Issued on Jan 22, 2013|
|Updated: Tue Jan 22 08:53:03 UTC 2013|
|D4||Fri, Jan 25, 2013 - Sat, Jan 26, 2013
||D7||Mon, Jan 28, 2013 - Tue, Jan 29, 2013
|D5||Sat, Jan 26, 2013 - Sun, Jan 27, 2013
||D8||Tue, Jan 29, 2013 - Wed, Jan 30, 2013
|D6||Sun, Jan 27, 2013 - Mon, Jan 28, 2013
||(All days are valid from 12 UTC - 12 UTC the following day)
Note: A severe weather area depicted in the Day 4-8 period indicates a 30% or higher probability for severe thunderstorms within 25 miles of any point.
PREDICTABILITY TOO LOW is used to indicate severe storms may be possible based on some model scenarios. However, the location or occurrence of severe storms are in doubt due to: 1) large differences in the deterministic model solutions, 2) large spread in the ensemble guidance, and/or 3) minimal run-to-run continuity.
POTENTIAL TOO LOW means the threat for a regional area of organized severe storms appears highly unlikely during the entire period (e.g. less than a 30% probability for a regional severe storm area across the CONUS through the entire Day 4-8 period).
ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL
ACUS48 KWNS 220852
SPC AC 220852
DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0252 AM CST TUE JAN 22 2013
VALID 251200Z - 301200Z
THE ECMWF AND GFS MODELS ARE IN MUCH BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE
EVOLUTION OF THE PATTERN OVER THE NEXT 8 DAYS...WITH THE POTENTIAL
FOR THUNDERSTORMS...POSSIBLY SEVERE...BEGINNING MON-TUE NEXT WEEK.
A POWERFUL SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO MOVE SEWD ACROSS THE
UPPER AND MIDDLE MS VALLEY ON FRI/D4...AND WILL AMPLIFY AS IT
APPROACHES THE E COAST ON SAT/D5. BEHIND THIS TROUGH...A LARGE AREA
OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL MAINTAIN COOL AND DRY WEATHER OVER THE CNTRL
AND ERN STATES.
BY SUN/D6 INTO MON/D7...THERE IS CONSISTENCY IN DROPPING A STRONG
SHORTWAVE TROUGH OR UPPER LOW SWD ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN...THEN
MOVING IT INTO THE PLAINS OR MS VALLEY ON TUE/D8. THERE APPEARS TO
BE SUFFICIENT TIME WITH FAVORABLE LOW LEVEL TRAJECTORIES TO BRING
SUBSTANTIAL MOISTURE NWD ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO AND INTO ERN TX
AND ACROSS THE GULF COAST STATES. THE LIKELY JUXTAPOSITION OF STRONG
FLOW ALOFT OVER A SUFFICIENTLY BROAD MOIST SECTOR SUGGEST THAT
SEVERE WEATHER WOULD BE LIKELY IF THIS SCENARIO OCCURS.
HOWEVER...WILL WAIT FOR MORE RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY FROM THE VARIOUS
MODELS BEFORE INTRODUCING ANY POTENTIAL SEVERE AREAS THIS FAR IN
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